IrelandversusBangladesh

Ireland more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,678 vs 1,432 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Ireland won 3
• Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Ireland started on 73%; Ireland batted first.

Ireland's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 1% to 60%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 17.6: L Delany to Sharmin Akhter, four by Sharmin Akhter. Bangladesh up from 31% to 60%.
2. 2nd inns 18.1: O Prendergast to Shorna Akter, Shorna Akter out. Ireland up from 40% to 60%.
3. 2nd inns 18.4: O Prendergast to Ritu Moni, Ritu Moni out. Ireland up from 79% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.