Absolute Carnage! | England v Sri Lanka ODI & T20 2026 Highlights
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-29
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Pakistan ODI Tri-Series · 2026/27 · Men
29 Oct 2026 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 46%; England batted first.
England Cricket · Uploaded 2026-10-29
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamindu Mendisbowled · Sonny Baker 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sonny Baker | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36.36 |
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Will Jacks · Liam Dawson 8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Will Jacks · b Liam Dawson | 48 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 96.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Jordan Cox · Joe Root 8 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Jordan Cox · b Joe Root | 89 | 71 | 8 | 5 | 125.35 |
| Pavan Rathnayakecaught · Sonny Baker · Liam Dawson 15 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sonny Baker · b Liam Dawson | 118 | 77 | 15 | 1 | 153.25 |
| Dasun Shanakalbw · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Liam Dawson | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 36.36 |
England's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Sri Lanka: 0% to 55%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Harry Brook · b Sonny Baker |
| 27 |
| 17 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 158.82 |
| Sahan Arachchigecaught · Harry Brook · Henry Crocombe 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Henry Crocombe | 30 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagerun out · Sam Curran, Joe Root · Sam Curran 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sam Curran, Joe Root | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Eshan Malingabowled · Sam Curran 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sam Curran | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandocaught · Tom Banton · Liam Dawson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Banton · b Liam Dawson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Dilshan Madushankanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson1 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 63 | 0 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Sonny Baker0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 75 | 2 | 8.33 | 3 | 0 |
 Sam Curran1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.1 | 1 | 44 | 1 | 6.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam Dawson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 4 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Henry Crocombe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Will Jacks0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-13 (Kamindu Mendis, 3.5) · 2-97 (Avishka Fernando, 16.3) · 3-177 (Kusal Mendis, 26.2) · 4-186 (Dasun Shanaka, 29.2) · 5-258 (Janith Liyanage, 35.4) · 6-315 (Sahan Arachchige, 42.3) · 7-320 (Dunith Wellalage, 43.2) · 8-329 (Pavan Rathnayake, 44.2) · 9-331 (Asitha Fernando, 45.0) · 10-331 (Eshan Malinga, 45.1)
Recorded target: 387 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 14/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 18 | 47/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 55/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 12 | 10 | 67/1 |
| 13 | 9 | 76/1 |
| 14 | 5 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 83/1 |
| 16 | 13 | 96/1 |
| 17 | 7 | 103/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 107/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 112/2 |
| 20 | 7 | 119/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 123/2 |
| 22 | 11 | 134/2 |
| 23 | 8 | 142/2 |
| 24 | 13 | 155/2 |
| 25 | 15 | 170/2 |
| 26 | 7 | 177/2 |
| 27 | 2 | 179/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 182/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 186/3 |
| 30 | 2 | 188/4 |
| 31 | 18 | 206/4 |
| 32 | 12 | 218/4 |
| 33 | 13 | 231/4 |
| 34 | 9 | 240/4 |
| 35 | 9 | 249/4 |
| 36 | 15 | 264/5 |
| 37 | 11 | 275/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 277/5 |
| 39 | 13 | 290/5 |
| 40 | 10 | 300/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 306/5 |
| 42 | 4 | 310/5 |
| 43 | 10 | 320/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 325/7 |
| 45 | 6 | 331/9 |
| 46 | 0 | 331/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Henry Crocombe: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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