BangladeshversusSri Lanka

10 Jul 2025 · T20

Pallekele International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 7 wickets

Bangladesh20.0 overs154/5 Sri Lanka19.0 overs159/3 Pallekele International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

38%Bangladesh62%Sri Lanka

Why

Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4
On results in T20 internationals so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,543 vs 1,523 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 36%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Sri Lanka is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Sri Lanka: 42% to 100%).

Biggest swings

4.6: N Thushara to Tanzid Hasan, Tanzid Hasan out. Sri Lanka up from 42% to 50%.
8.4: M Theekshana to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Sri Lanka up from 54% to 62%.
12.3: MD Shanaka to Towhid Hridoy, Towhid Hridoy out. Sri Lanka up from 59% to 65%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh154/5 Sri Lanka159/3

Innings 2

Sri Lanka

159/319.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Pathum Nissankacaught · Rishad Hossain · Mehedi Hasan 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Rishad Hossain · b Mehedi Hasan	42	16	5	3	262.50
Kusal Mendiscaught · Shamim Hossain · Mohammad Saifuddin 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Shamim Hossain · b Mohammad Saifuddin	73	51	5	3	143.14
Kushal Janith Pereracaught · Litton Das · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Rishad Hossain	24	25	2	1	96.00
Avishka Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes	not out	11*	17	0	0	64.71
Charith Asalankanot out 0 fours · 1 sixes	not out	8*	5	0	1	160.00
Extras	byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls
Mohammad Saifuddin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	43	0	14.33
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	34	0	8.50
Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00
Shamim Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	14	14/0
2	16	30/0
3	16	46/0
4	18	64/0
5	14	78/1
6	5	83/1
7	5	88/1
8	11	99/1
9	2	101/1
10	10	111/1
11	3	114/1
12	4	118/1
13	2	120/2
14	6	126/2
15	3	129/2
16	9	138/2
17	9	147/2
18	3	150/3
19	9	159/3

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