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Bangladesh tour of Sri Lanka · 2025 · Men
17 Jun 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographSri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shadman Islamcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Tharindu Ratnayake 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 14 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 26.42 |
 Anamul Haquecaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mominul Haquecaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Tharindu Ratnayake4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 29 | 33 | 4 | 0 | 87.88 |
 |
| caught · Angelo Mathews · b Asitha Fernando |
| 148 |
| 279 |
| 15 |
| 1 |
| 53.05 |
 Mushfiqur Rahimlbw · Asitha Fernando9 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 163 | 350 | 9 | 0 | 46.57 |
|---|
 Litton Dascaught · Kusal Mendis · Tharindu Ratnayake11 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Tharindu Ratnayake | 90 | 123 | 11 | 1 | 73.17 |
|---|
 Jaker Alibowled · Milan Priyanath1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Milan Priyanath | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Nayeem Hasancaught · Kusal Mendis · Milan Priyanath1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Milan Priyanath | 11 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 36.67 |
|---|
 Taijul Islambowled · Milan Priyanath1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Milan Priyanath | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
|---|
 Hasan Mahmudnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 15 | 1 | 0 | 46.67 |
|---|
 Nahid Ranacaught · Kusal Mendis · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Asitha Fernando | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 8 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando5 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 29.4 | 5 | 86 | 4 | 2.90 | 1 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.4 | 6 | 39 | 3 | 1.65 | 0 | 0 |
| Tharindu Ratnayake3 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 49.2 | 3 | 196 | 3 | 3.97 | 3 | 1 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 48.0 | 2 | 154 | 0 | 3.21 | 0 | 1 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Anamul Haque, 4.3) · 2-39 (Shadman Islam, 15.0) · 3-45 (Mominul Haque, 16.1) · 4-309 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 96.1) · 5-458 (Mushfiqur Rahim, 140.2) · 6-458 (Litton Das, 141.4) · 7-474 (Jaker Ali, 147.0) · 8-483 (Taijul Islam, 148.4) · 9-484 (Nayeem Hasan, 150.1) · 10-495 (Nahid Rana, 153.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 9/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 16/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 22/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 26/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 32/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 35/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 45/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 46/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 52/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 53/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 59/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 60/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 66/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 25 | 11 | 80/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 81/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 87/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 90/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 92/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 93/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 96/3 |
| 32 | 9 | 105/3 |
| 33 | 3 | 108/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 113/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 116/3 |
| 36 | 0 | 116/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 121/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 123/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 127/3 |
| 40 | 1 | 128/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 129/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 132/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 134/3 |
| 44 | 3 | 137/3 |
| 45 | 1 | 138/3 |
| 46 | 3 | 141/3 |
| 47 | 3 | 144/3 |
| 48 | 3 | 147/3 |
| 49 | 3 | 150/3 |
| 50 | 2 | 152/3 |
| 51 | 6 | 158/3 |
| 52 | 5 | 163/3 |
| 53 | 4 | 167/3 |
| 54 | 4 | 171/3 |
| 55 | 6 | 177/3 |
| 56 | 2 | 179/3 |
| 57 | 0 | 179/3 |
| 58 | 3 | 182/3 |
| 59 | 7 | 189/3 |
| 60 | 5 | 194/3 |
| 61 | 2 | 196/3 |
| 62 | 0 | 196/3 |
| 63 | 4 | 200/3 |
| 64 | 2 | 202/3 |
| 65 | 5 | 207/3 |
| 66 | 1 | 208/3 |
| 67 | 3 | 211/3 |
| 68 | 1 | 212/3 |
| 69 | 5 | 217/3 |
| 70 | 3 | 220/3 |
| 71 | 5 | 225/3 |
| 72 | 4 | 229/3 |
| 73 | 0 | 229/3 |
| 74 | 5 | 234/3 |
| 75 | 5 | 239/3 |
| 76 | 4 | 243/3 |
| 77 | 2 | 245/3 |
| 78 | 2 | 247/3 |
| 79 | 0 | 247/3 |
| 80 | 6 | 253/3 |
| 81 | 5 | 258/3 |
| 82 | 3 | 261/3 |
| 83 | 10 | 271/3 |
| 84 | 2 | 273/3 |
| 85 | 5 | 278/3 |
| 86 | 2 | 280/3 |
| 87 | 4 | 284/3 |
| 88 | 3 | 287/3 |
| 89 | 4 | 291/3 |
| 90 | 1 | 292/3 |
| 91 | 1 | 293/3 |
| 92 | 1 | 294/3 |
| 93 | 7 | 301/3 |
| 94 | 0 | 301/3 |
| 95 | 3 | 304/3 |
| 96 | 5 | 309/3 |
| 97 | 0 | 309/4 |
| 98 | 1 | 310/4 |
| 99 | 3 | 313/4 |
| 100 | 4 | 317/4 |
| 101 | 2 | 319/4 |
| 102 | 5 | 324/4 |
| 103 | 3 | 327/4 |
| 104 | 1 | 328/4 |
| 105 | 4 | 332/4 |
| 106 | 2 | 334/4 |
| 107 | 4 | 338/4 |
| 108 | 5 | 343/4 |
| 109 | 13 | 356/4 |
| 110 | 1 | 357/4 |
| 111 | 3 | 360/4 |
| 112 | 13 | 373/4 |
| 113 | 4 | 377/4 |
| 114 | 1 | 378/4 |
| 115 | 4 | 382/4 |
| 116 | 0 | 382/4 |
| 117 | 1 | 383/4 |
| 118 | 3 | 386/4 |
| 119 | 4 | 390/4 |
| 120 | 10 | 400/4 |
| 121 | 1 | 401/4 |
| 122 | 2 | 403/4 |
| 123 | 1 | 404/4 |
| 124 | 2 | 406/4 |
| 125 | 3 | 409/4 |
| 126 | 3 | 412/4 |
| 127 | 0 | 412/4 |
| 128 | 4 | 416/4 |
| 129 | 0 | 416/4 |
| 130 | 4 | 420/4 |
| 131 | 6 | 426/4 |
| 132 | 3 | 429/4 |
| 133 | 1 | 430/4 |
| 134 | 9 | 439/4 |
| 135 | 1 | 440/4 |
| 136 | 4 | 444/4 |
| 137 | 2 | 446/4 |
| 138 | 6 | 452/4 |
| 139 | 0 | 452/4 |
| 140 | 6 | 458/4 |
| 141 | 0 | 458/5 |
| 142 | 1 | 459/6 |
| 143 | 4 | 463/6 |
| 144 | 4 | 467/6 |
| 145 | 2 | 469/6 |
| 146 | 1 | 470/6 |
| 147 | 4 | 474/7 |
| 148 | 5 | 479/7 |
| 149 | 4 | 483/8 |
| 150 | 1 | 484/8 |
| 151 | 0 | 484/9 |
| 152 | 5 | 489/9 |
| 153 | 1 | 490/9 |
| 154 | 5 | 495/10 |
Nahid Rana: Press Information Department · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mominul Haque: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anamul Haque: Pro-Vc AIUB · CC BY 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nayeem Hasan: IqbalHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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