Saudi ArabiaversusThailand

24 Apr 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Saudi Arabia won by 66 runs

Saudi Arabia19.5 overs156/10 Thailand16.1 overs90/10 Bayuemas Oval, Kuala Lumpur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Saudi Arabia more likely to win

69%Saudi Arabia31%Thailand

Why

In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Saudi Arabia won 3 and Thailand won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Saudi Arabia rate stronger than Thailand (1,543 vs 1,487 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 67%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 66% to 100% during the match (Thailand: 0% to 34%).

Biggest swings

3.4: W Ngowhuad to Faisal Khan, Faisal Khan out. Thailand up from 24% to 30%.
7.6: N Senamontree to Usman Khalid, Usman Khalid out. Thailand up from 27% to 34%.
10.3: P Thongsa to Usman Najeeb, four by Usman Najeeb. Saudi Arabia up from 77% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia156/10 Thailand90/10

Innings 1

Saudi Arabia

156/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Usman Khalidbowled · Nopphon Senamontree 1 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Nopphon Senamontree	20	25	1	1	80.00
Faisal Khancaught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · W Ngowhuad 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · b W Ngowhuad	17	11	1	1	154.55
Abdul Waheedcaught · Austin Lazarus · Sarawut Maliwan 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Austin Lazarus · b Sarawut Maliwan	7	10	1	0	70.00
Manan Alicaught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · N Nuntarach 1 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Chaloemwong Chatphaisan · b N Nuntarach	30	16	1	3	187.50
Usman Najeebcaught · S Rungrueang · Sarawut Maliwan 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught · S Rungrueang · b Sarawut Maliwan	27	12	2

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
N Salekar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	0	4.75	2	0
W Ngowhuad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	1	0
Nopphon Senamontree0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0	0
Sarawut Maliwan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	0	0
Phanuphong Thongsa0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	28	0	14.00	1	1
N Nuntarach0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.5	24	3	13.09	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	7	9/0
3	6	15/0
4	9	24/1
5	9	33/1
6	1	34/1
7	7	41/2
8	10	51/3
9	11	62/3
10	11	73/3
11	21	94/3
12	16	110/4
13	3	113/5
14	8	121/5
15	5	126/6
16	3	129/7
17	10	139/7
18	5	144/7
19	4	148/8
20	8	156/10

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