Papua New GuineaversusMalaysia

Papua New Guinea more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Papua New Guinea rate stronger than Malaysia (1,582 vs 1,509 on our results rating)
• In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Papua New Guinea won 3 and Malaysia won 1
• Malaysia are playing at home in Malaysia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Papua New Guinea started on 58%; Papua New Guinea batted first.

Papua New Guinea's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Malaysia: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.4: Syed Aziz to TP Ura, four by TP Ura. Papua New Guinea up from 60% to 64%.
2. 4.5: Syed Aziz to S Bau, S Bau out. Malaysia up from 16% to 20%.
3. 6.2: S Vijay Unni to TP Ura, TP Ura out. Malaysia up from 20% to 24%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.