NamibiaversusNigeria

20 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Namibia won by 90 runs

Namibia20.0 overs194/3 Nigeria16.0 overs104/10 Namibia Cricket Ground, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Namibia more likely to win

65%Namibia35%Nigeria

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Namibia rate stronger than Nigeria (1,534 vs 1,496 on our results rating)
Namibia are playing at home in Namibia
In the last 3 T20 internationals between these sides, Namibia won 2 and Nigeria won 1

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Namibia started on 61%; Namibia batted first.

Namibia’s chance of winning (%) · Nigeria is the rest

Namibia's chances ranged from 59% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 41%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Mohameed Taiwo to JN Frylinck, six by JN Frylinck. Namibia up from 59% to 64%.
2nd inns 5.5: JJ Smit to I Danladi, I Danladi out. Namibia up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 6.4: W Smith to Ali Rahmon, Ali Rahmon out. Namibia up from 85% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Namibia194/3 Nigeria104/10

Innings 2

Nigeria

104/1016.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Selim Salaurun out · ZJ van Vuuren, Zane Green · Jack Brassell 2 fours · 1 sixes	run out · ZJ van Vuuren, Zane Green	27	29	2	1	93.10
Isaac Danladicaught · Gerhard Erasmus · JJ Smit 5 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Gerhard Erasmus · b JJ Smit	34	18	5	1	188.89
Ali Rahmoncaught · W Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · b W Smith	4	4	1	0	100.00
O Olaleyecaught · Ruben Trumpelmann · JC Balt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ruben Trumpelmann · b JC Balt	4	11	0	0	36.36
Isaac Okpebowled · Jack Brassell 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Jack Brassell	0	2	0	0	0.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ruben Trumpelmann0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	0	10.67	2	0
M Heingo0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	18	1	9.00	0	1
JJ Smit0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	14	1	7.00	0	0
Jack Brassell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	12	2	3.00	1	0
W Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	18	2	9.00	0	0
JC Balt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	7	3	2.33	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	8	13/0
3	21	34/0
4	2	36/0
5	3	39/0
6	12	51/1
7	12	63/2
8	4	67/2
9	5	72/2
10	2	74/3
11	3	77/5
12	2	79/7
13	6	85/7
14	3	88/8
15	6	94/9
16	10	104/10

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