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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
22 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 87%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Gambia: 0% to 17%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Jarjubowled · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b GM Muthui | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| AM Rajpurohitcaught · Rakep Patel · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rakep Patel · b GM Muthui | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Asim Ashrafcaught · Sachin Gill · Sachin Bhudia 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sachin Gill · b Sachin Bhudia | 19 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 67.86 |
| Abubacarr Kuyatehbowled · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b GM Muthui | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Frank Campbelllbw · GM Muthui 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b GM Muthui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ismaila Tanba |
| lbw · b Shem Ngoche |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Basiru Jayelbw · GM Muthui 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b GM Muthui | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Mustapha Suwarehcaught · Francis Mutua · Sachin Bhudia 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Francis Mutua · b Sachin Bhudia | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Ousman Bahlbw · Sachin Bhudia 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sachin Bhudia | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Shan Siddiquibowled · Shem Ngoche 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shem Ngoche | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Musa Jobartehnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM Muthui1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 1.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Francis Mutua1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Peter Langat0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shem Ngoche0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sachin Bhudia1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (AM Rajpurohit, 2.1) · 2-21 (Andre Jarju, 5.1) · 3-22 (Abubacarr Kuyateh, 5.3) · 4-22 (Frank Campbell, 5.4) · 5-27 (Ismaila Tanba, 6.3) · 6-34 (Basiru Jaye, 7.3) · 7-41 (Mustapha Suwareh, 10.3) · 8-41 (Ousman Bah, 10.5) · 9-46 (Shan Siddiqui, 12.0) · 10-46 (Asim Ashraf, 12.4)
Recorded target: 176 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 10/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 21/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 26/4 |
| 7 | 7 | 33/5 |
| 8 | 1 | 34/6 |
| 9 | 3 | 37/6 |
| 10 | 4 | 41/6 |
| 11 | 0 | 41/8 |
| 12 | 5 | 46/9 |
| 13 | 0 | 46/10 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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