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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
22 Oct 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 87%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (Gambia: 0% to 17%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pushkar Sharmacaught · AM Rajpurohit · Andre Jarju6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AM Rajpurohit · b Andre Jarju | 43 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 126.47 |
| N Mugaberun out · Abubacarr Kuyateh · Abubacarr Kuyateh 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Abubacarr Kuyateh | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Sachin Gillbowled · Andre Jarju 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Andre Jarju | 21 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 140.00 |
 Rakep Patelbowled · Andre Jarju4 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Andre Jarju | 63 | 40 | 4 | 4 | 157.50 |
| Sachin Bhudiabowled · AM Rajpurohit0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b AM Rajpurohit |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
| Irfan Karimcaught · Andre Jarju · Abubacarr Kuyateh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Andre Jarju · b Abubacarr Kuyateh | 18 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 105.88 |
|---|
| Lucas Oluochrun out · Musa Jobarteh · Musa Jobarteh 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Musa Jobarteh | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Shem Ngochebowled · Musa Jobarteh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Musa Jobarteh | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Francis Mutuabowled · Musa Jobarteh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Musa Jobarteh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Peter Langatnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| GM Muthuinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 15 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abubacarr Kuyateh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 4 | 0 |
| Musa Jobarteh0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 9.33 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Jarju0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 10.00 | 1 | 1 |
| Shan Siddiqui0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 3 | 1 |
| Asim Ashraf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 9.67 | 0 | 0 |
| AM Rajpurohit0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (N Mugabe, 0.4) · 2-69 (Sachin Gill, 7.0) · 3-80 (Pushkar Sharma, 8.3) · 4-92 (Sachin Bhudia, 10.1) · 5-155 (Irfan Karim, 17.3) · 6-170 (Rakep Patel, 18.5) · 7-173 (Shem Ngoche, 19.2) · 8-174 (Francis Mutua, 19.3) · 9-174 (Lucas Oluoch, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 8 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 19 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 14 | 51/1 |
| 6 | 13 | 64/1 |
| 7 | 5 | 69/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 75/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 85/3 |
| 10 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 11 | 3 | 95/4 |
| 12 | 11 | 106/4 |
| 13 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 14 | 11 | 123/4 |
| 15 | 9 | 132/4 |
| 16 | 9 | 141/4 |
| 17 | 12 | 153/4 |
| 18 | 8 | 161/5 |
| 19 | 11 | 172/6 |
| 20 | 3 | 175/9 |
Pushkar Sharma: SAKSHI0989 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rakep Patel: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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