GibraltarversusCzech Republic

13 Jun 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Gibraltar won by 77 runs

Gibraltar20.0 overs161/3 Czech Republic17.1 overs84/9 Scott Page Field, Vinor ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Gibraltar more likely to win

76%Gibraltar24%Czech Republic

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Gibraltar rate stronger than Czech Republic (1,340 vs 1,172 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Gibraltar won 2 and Czech Republic won 0
Czech Republic are playing at home in the Czech Republic

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gibraltar started on 74%; Gibraltar batted first.

Gibraltar’s chance of winning (%) · Czech Republic is the rest

Gibraltar's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Czech Republic: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

0.2: S Talamarla to AIV Benatar, 2 runs to AIV Benatar. Gibraltar up from 75% to 79%.
1.1: S Kolcunova to AIV Benatar, 1 run to AIV Benatar. Gibraltar up from 80% to 84%.
2nd inns 0.4: EAS Ferrary to S Talamarla, S Talamarla out. Gibraltar up from 93% to 95%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gibraltar161/3 Czech Republic84/9

Innings 2

Czech Republic

84/917.1 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Czech Republic batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Talamarlabowled · EAS Ferrary 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b EAS Ferrary	0	4	0	0	0.00
J Souckovacaught · LJ Payas · EAS Ferrary 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · LJ Payas · b EAS Ferrary	8	10	1	0	80.00
R Pavlickovabowled · AIV Benatar 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b AIV Benatar	1	3	0	0	33.33
E Kuncovabowled · YS Blagg 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b YS Blagg	6	15	1	0	40.00
Z Franovabowled · YS Blagg 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b YS Blagg	0	5	0	0	0.00
J Kominkovabowled · YS Blagg0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
EAS Ferrary0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	10	2	2.50	4	0
AIV Benatar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	11	1	5.50	2	0
YS Blagg0 maidens · 14 wides · 0 no-balls	3.1	0	19	4	6.00	14	0
H Mumford0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	1	0
P Raghunath1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	1	6	1	3.00	1	0
A Gianani0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	9	0	4.50	5	0
M Mumford0 maidens · 8 wides · 3 no-balls	1.0	0	11	0	11.00	8	3
LJ Payas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	4	0	4.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	4	5/2
3	4	9/2
4	8	17/2
5	2	19/3
6	2	21/4
7	6	27/4
8	10	37/6
9	3	40/7
10	0	40/8
11	3	43/8
12	12	55/8
13	6	61/8
14	6	67/8
15	5	72/8
16	6	78/8
17	4	82/8
18	2	84/9

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