**Centurion Park**
Photo: shodan
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2024/25 · Men

Joburg Super KingsversusPretoria Capitals

28 Jan 2025 · T20

Centurion Park · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pretoria Capitals won by 6 wickets

Joburg Super Kings20.0 overs99/9 Pretoria Capitals12.0 overs100/4 Centurion Park ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Joburg Super Kings started on 48%; Joburg Super Kings batted first.

Joburg Super Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Pretoria Capitals is the rest

Joburg Super Kings's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (Pretoria Capitals: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.3: TS Rogers to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Pretoria Capitals up from 48% to 59%.
8.2: GG Peters to DP Conway, DP Conway out. Pretoria Capitals up from 70% to 77%.
8.4: GG Peters to MM Ali, MM Ali out. Pretoria Capitals up from 78% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.