Seattle OrcasversusMI New York

5 Jul 2024 · T20

Recorded result

MI New York won by 6 wickets

Seattle Orcas19.1 overs108/10 MI New York14.2 overs111/4 Church Street Park, Morrisville ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Seattle Orcas started on 45%; Seattle Orcas batted first.

Seattle Orcas’s chance of winning (%) · MI New York is the rest

Seattle Orcas's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (MI New York: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.6: TA Boult to Nauman Anwar, Nauman Anwar out. MI New York up from 57% to 67%.
2.6: TA Boult to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. MI New York up from 67% to 76%.
2nd inns 2.6: CJ Gannon to MD Patel, MD Patel out. Seattle Orcas up from 13% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.