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ICC Men's T20 World Cup East Asia-Pacific Qualifier · 2026 · Men
12 May 2026 · T20
Sano International Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 82%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (Indonesia: 0% to 32%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gede Priandanabowled · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Sudhakar Jegannathancaught · R Sakurano-Thomas · Charlie Hara-Hinze 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Sakurano-Thomas · b Charlie Hara-Hinze | 24 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 120.00 |
| Kavin Chaddhacaught · Abhishek Anand · S Ravichandran 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Abhishek Anand · b S Ravichandran | 15 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 93.75 |
| Gaurav Tiwaricaught · A Patmore · M Taniyama 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Patmore · b M Taniyama | 9 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 64.29 |
| Kadek Gamantikacaught · M Taniyama · D Suzuki 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · M Taniyama · b D Suzuki | 33 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 122.22 |
| Danilson Hawoerun out · A Patmore, Charlie Hara-Hinze · Ibrahim Takahashi 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · A Patmore, Charlie Hara-Hinze | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Dharma Kesumabowled · Ibrahim Takahashi 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Takahashi | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Yudha Verdianbowled · Esam Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Esam Rahman | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Anjar Tadarusbowled · R Sakurano-Thomas 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b R Sakurano-Thomas | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Gede Artacaught · S Ravichandran · M Taniyama 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Ravichandran · b M Taniyama | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| F Banunaeknot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul Samad (2)1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4.33 | 0 | 0 |
| R Sakurano-Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Hara-Hinze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Ravichandran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 11.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Takahashi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| M Taniyama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.1 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9.43 | 0 | 0 |
| D Suzuki0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Esam Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Gede Priandana, 2.0) · 2-37 (Sudhakar Jegannathan, 6.2) · 3-46 (Kavin Chaddha, 9.0) · 4-53 (Gaurav Tiwari, 10.3) · 5-60 (Danilson Hawoe, 11.3) · 6-60 (Dharma Kesuma, 11.5) · 7-91 (Yudha Verdian, 16.4) · 8-95 (Kadek Gamantika, 17.4) · 9-101 (Anjar Tadarus, 18.5) · 10-101 (Gede Arta, 19.1)
Recorded target: 143 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 16 | 36/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 39/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 43/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 48/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 59/4 |
| 12 | 1 | 60/6 |
| 13 | 7 | 67/6 |
| 14 | 2 | 69/6 |
| 15 | 15 | 84/6 |
| 16 | 5 | 89/6 |
| 17 | 4 | 93/7 |
| 18 | 4 | 97/8 |
| 19 | 4 | 101/9 |
| 20 | 0 | 101/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.