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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Africa Qualifier · 2024 · Men
24 Sept 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Ghana more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ghana started on 59%; Ghana batted first.
Ghana's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Lesotho: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM Gabriellbw · Godfred Bakiweyem 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Godfred Bakiweyem | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| ME Leoelacaught · Frank Baleri · Kofi Bagabena 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Frank Baleri · b Kofi Bagabena | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Lebona Leokaokebowled · Godfred Bakiweyem 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Godfred Bakiweyem | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| Maaz Khancaught · Frank Baleri · Godfred Bakiweyem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Frank Baleri · b Godfred Bakiweyem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sajid Patellbw · E Frimpong 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b E Frimpong | 42 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 95.45 |
| bowled · b Obed Agbomadzie |
| 3 |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 16.67 |
| Waseem Yaqoobcaught · Frank Baleri · E Frimpong 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Frank Baleri · b E Frimpong | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Lefulere Monanthanebowled · Kofi Bagabena 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kofi Bagabena | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 41.18 |
|---|
| Ts'episo Chaoanabowled · E Frimpong 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b E Frimpong | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| MV Matsaunot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Bahlakoana Mejarocaught · Frank Baleri · Obed Agbomadzie 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Frank Baleri · b Obed Agbomadzie | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 3 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godfred Bakiweyem1 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 21 | 3 | 5.25 | 4 | 1 |
| Kofi Bagabena1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 2.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Lee Nyarko1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Richmond Baaleri0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Obed Agbomadzie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| E Frimpong1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (LM Gabriel, 0.3) · 2-11 (Lebona Leokaoke, 2.1) · 3-11 (Maaz Khan, 2.2) · 4-11 (ME Leoela, 3.2) · 5-43 (Chachole Tlali, 10.0) · 6-53 (Waseem Yaqoob, 12.1) · 7-64 (Sajid Patel, 14.5) · 8-72 (Lefulere Monanthane, 17.1) · 9-80 (Ts'episo Chaoana, 18.3) · 10-83 (Bahlakoana Mejaro, 20.0)
Recorded target: 134 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 11/3 |
| 4 | 0 | 11/4 |
| 5 | 11 | 22/4 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/4 |
| 7 | 0 | 24/4 |
| 8 | 6 | 30/4 |
| 9 | 12 | 42/4 |
| 10 | 1 | 43/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 47/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 53/5 |
| 13 | 0 | 53/6 |
| 14 | 7 | 60/6 |
| 15 | 4 | 64/7 |
| 16 | 6 | 70/7 |
| 17 | 2 | 72/7 |
| 18 | 6 | 78/8 |
| 19 | 2 | 80/9 |
| 20 | 3 | 83/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.