QatarversusHong Kong

12 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Qatar won by 6 runs

Qatar19.3 overs109/10 Hong Kong20.0 overs103/9 West End Park International Cricket Stadium, Doha ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Hong Kong more likely to win

42%Qatar58%Hong Kong

Why

In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, Hong Kong won 5 and Qatar won 1
Qatar are playing at home in Qatar
On results in T20 internationals so far, Hong Kong rate stronger than Qatar (1,503 vs 1,486 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Qatar started on 40%; Qatar batted first.

Qatar’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Qatar's chances ranged from 6% to 99% during the match (Hong Kong: 2% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: MM Baig to Anshuman Rath, Anshuman Rath out. Qatar up from 31% to 52%.
2nd inns 14.1: Owais Ahmed to S Mathur, S Mathur out. Qatar up from 42% to 69%.
2nd inns 17.2: Saqlain Arshad to KD Shah, KD Shah out. Qatar up from 50% to 71%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Qatar109/10 Hong Kong103/9

Innings 2

Hong Kong

103/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hong Kong batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Zeeshan Alistumped · Imal Liyanage · Mujeeb Ur Rehman 1 fours · 0 sixes	stumped · Imal Liyanage · b Mujeeb Ur Rehman	4	4	1	0	100.00
Anshuman Rathcaught · Imal Liyanage · Mirza Mohammed Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imal Liyanage · b Mirza Mohammed Baig	5	10	0	0	50.00
Babar Hayatcaught · Saqlain Arshad · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saqlain Arshad · b Muhammad Asim	0	3	0	0	0.00
Nizakat Khanbowled · Mirza Mohammed Baig 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Mirza Mohammed Baig	6	13	1	0	46.15
S Mathurlbw · Owais Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Owais Ahmed	19	32	1	0	59.38

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	1	6.33	0
Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	20	1	5.00	6
Mirza Mohammed Baig1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	8	3	2.67	0
Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	3
Owais Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	16	1	5.33	0
Mokbul Ahammed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	14	0	7.00	0
Saqlain Arshad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	2	4.67	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	2	6/2
3	4	10/2
4	9	19/2
5	0	19/3
6	2	21/3
7	3	24/4
8	6	30/4
9	4	34/4
10	5	39/4
11	5	44/4
12	10	54/4
13	5	59/4
14	3	62/5
15	2	64/6
16	11	75/6
17	8	83/6
18	6	89/7
19	5	94/8
20	9	103/9

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