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East Asia Cup · 2023/24 · Men
14 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Hong Kong more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Hong Kong started on 72%; Hong Kong batted first.
Hong Kong's chances ranged from 42% to 100% during the match (China: 0% to 58%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Coetzeecaught · Wei Guo Lei · Tian Sen Qun 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wei Guo Lei · b Tian Sen Qun | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Nizakat Khancaught · Zhao Tianle · Tian Sen Qun 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zhao Tianle · b Tian Sen Qun | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Anshuman Rathnot out 10 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 72* | 46 | 10 | 2 | 156.52 |
| James Atkinsonbowled · Tian Sen Qun 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tian Sen Qun | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aizaz Khancaught · Chen Zhuo Yue · Zhao Tianle 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Chen Zhuo Yue · b Zhao Tianle | 27 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 103.85 |
| run out · Tian Sen Qun |
| 52 |
| 33 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 157.58 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tian Sen Qun1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Ma Qiancheng0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 8.75 | 2 | 0 |
| Chen Zhuo Yue0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Zong Yuechao0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Luo Shilin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 17.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Deng Jinqi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zhao Tianle0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 11.33 | 1 | 0 |
1-12 (Martin Coetzee, 2.1) · 2-13 (Nizakat Khan, 2.3) · 3-13 (James Atkinson, 2.4) · 4-91 (Aizaz Khan, 11.3) · 5-171 (Yasim Murtaza, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 13/3 |
| 4 | 10 | 23/3 |
| 5 | 2 | 25/3 |
| 6 | 9 | 34/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 39/3 |
| 8 | 8 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 54/3 |
| 10 | 17 | 71/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 82/3 |
| 12 | 10 | 92/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 94/4 |
| 14 | 8 | 102/4 |
| 15 | 3 | 105/4 |
| 16 | 16 | 121/4 |
| 17 | 16 | 137/4 |
| 18 | 9 | 146/4 |
| 19 | 17 | 163/4 |
| 20 | 8 | 171/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.