RwandaversusMalawi

5 Jun 2025 · T20

Gahanga International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rwanda won by 49 runs

Rwanda20.1 overs109/4 Malawi17.4 overs60/10 Gahanga International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Rwanda more likely to win

87%Rwanda13%Malawi

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Rwanda rate stronger than Malawi (1,578 vs 1,326 on our results rating)
Rwanda are playing at home in Rwanda
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Rwanda won 1 and Malawi won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rwanda started on 87%; Rwanda batted first.

Rwanda’s chance of winning (%) · Malawi is the rest

Rwanda's chances ranged from 75% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 25%).

Biggest swings

19.6: E Kabwere to MD Bimenyimana, 1 run to MD Bimenyimana. Malawi up from 19% to 25%.
2nd inns 0.5: MD Bimenyimana to S Chinawa, S Chinawa out. Rwanda up from 78% to 84%.
2nd inns 7.2: A Ikuzwe to T Luka, T Luka out. Rwanda up from 84% to 90%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rwanda109/4 Malawi60/10

Innings 2

Malawi

60/1017.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Malawi batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Chinawalbw · Marie Bimenyimana 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Marie Bimenyimana	0	4	0	0	0.00
T Lukabowled · A Ikuzwe 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b A Ikuzwe	14	26	1	0	53.85
Euless Chiralilelbw · Rosine Irera 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Rosine Irera	0	6	0	0	0.00
E Richardbowled · Henriette Ishimwe 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Henriette Ishimwe	7	10	0	0	70.00
LL Dimbabowled · A Ikuzwe 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b A Ikuzwe	2	6	0	0	33.33
Praise Maziyabowled · Henriette Ishimwe0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Marie Bimenyimana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	12	3	3.27	2
Rosine Irera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	8	1	2.00	0
Henriette Ishimwe0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	19	2	4.75	5
A Ikuzwe0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	9	4	2.25	2
B Murekatete0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	1	0	1.00	0
R Shimwamana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	1	4/1
3	1	5/1
4	1	6/2
5	8	14/2
6	3	17/2
7	11	28/2
8	2	30/3
9	1	31/5
10	1	32/8
11	2	34/8
12	4	38/8
13	5	43/8
14	2	45/8
15	4	49/8
16	2	51/8
17	8	59/8
18	1	60/10

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