ZimbabweversusBangladesh

19 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 4 wickets

Zimbabwe20.0 overs143/7 Bangladesh19.4 overs144/6 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

59%Zimbabwe41%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,583 vs 1,508 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 7 and Zimbabwe won 3
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Zimbabwe started on 60%; Zimbabwe batted first.

Zimbabwe’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 1% to 65% during the match (Bangladesh: 35% to 99%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.5: R Ngarava to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. Zimbabwe up from 36% to 48%.
2nd inns 19.3: B Evans to Mohammad Saifuddin, Mohammad Saifuddin out. Zimbabwe up from 12% to 25%.
2nd inns 19.4: B Evans to Mahedi Hasan, four by Mahedi Hasan. Bangladesh up from 75% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Zimbabwe143/7 Bangladesh144/6

Innings 2

Bangladesh

144/619.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saif Hassancaught · Blessing Muzarabani · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Blessing Muzarabani · b Richard Ngarava	4	5	1	0	80.00
Tanzid Hasannot out 1 fours · 4 sixes	not out	66*	58	1	4	113.79
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Brad Evans · Sikandar Raza 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Brad Evans · b Sikandar Raza	24	22	1	2	109.09
Tawhid Hridoycaught and bowled · Sikandar Raza 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught and bowled · b Sikandar Raza	24	19	1	1	126.32

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	1
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	0	4.25	0
Brad Evans0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	26	2	7.09	0
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	38	2	9.50	7
Tinotenda Maposa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	0
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	8	0	8.00	0
Brian Bennett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/1
2	7	11/1
3	7	18/1
4	1	19/1
5	7	26/1
6	4	30/1
7	8	38/1
8	14	52/1
9	10	62/2
10	6	68/2
11	9	77/2
12	5	82/2
13	8	90/2
14	11	101/2
15	6	107/2
16	15	122/3
17	8	130/3
18	5	135/3
19	4	139/4
20	5	144/6

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