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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
16 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bermuda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bermuda started on 78%; Bermuda batted first.
Bermuda's chances ranged from 73% to 100% during the match (Cayman Islands: 0% to 27%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Bakercaught · Tre Manders · Dion Stovell 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tre Manders · b Dion Stovell | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Sacha De Alwiscaught · Zeko Burgess · Derrick Brangman 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Zeko Burgess · b Derrick Brangman | 13 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 86.67 |
| AR Naidoocaught · D Sabir · Derrick Brangman 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · D Sabir · b Derrick Brangman | 33 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 89.19 |
 Ramon Sealycaught · Sinclair Smith · Kevon Fubler0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sinclair Smith · b Kevon Fubler | 18 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 90.00 |
| S Fosterbowled · Zeko Burgess 3 fours · 0 sixes |
| 22 |
| 17 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 129.41 |
| ROC Dunkacaught · Dion Stovell · Jonte Smith 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dion Stovell · b Jonte Smith | 23 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 153.33 |
|---|
| Conroy Wrightbowled · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zeko Burgess | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| D Johnsonbowled · Zeko Burgess 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zeko Burgess | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ronald Ebanksrun out · Jonte Smith, Sinclair Smith · Jonte Smith 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jonte Smith, Sinclair Smith | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Alessandro Morrisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Alistair Ifillnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeko Burgess0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Dion Stovell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brangman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonte Smith0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevon Fubler0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (J Baker, 1.3) · 2-21 (Sacha De Alwis, 4.4) · 3-48 (Ramon Sealy, 9.4) · 4-88 (S Foster, 14.4) · 5-101 (AR Naidoo, 16.4) · 6-113 (Conroy Wright, 18.1) · 7-113 (D Johnson, 18.2) · 8-121 (ROC Dunka, 19.2) · 9-124 (Ronald Ebanks, 19.5)
Recorded target: 140 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 30/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 8 | 5 | 40/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 46/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 11 | 9 | 60/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 65/3 |
| 13 | 5 | 70/3 |
| 14 | 10 | 80/3 |
| 15 | 9 | 89/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 95/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 101/5 |
| 18 | 12 | 113/5 |
| 19 | 4 | 117/7 |
| 20 | 9 | 126/9 |
Ramon Sealy: BugWarp · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
