South East StarsversusWestern Storm

19 May 2024 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South East Stars won by 4 runs

South East Stars20.0 overs132/9 Western Storm20.1 overs128/6 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South East Stars started on 47%; South East Stars batted first.

South East Stars’s chance of winning (%) · Western Storm is the rest

South East Stars's chances ranged from 20% to 100% during the match (Western Storm: 0% to 80%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.2: R MacDonald-Gay to SN Luff, four by SN Luff. Western Storm up from 64% to 78%.
2nd inns 19.2: NE Farrant to A Griffiths, 0 runs to A Griffiths. South East Stars up from 58% to 71%.
2nd inns 19.4: NE Farrant to A Griffiths, A Griffiths out. South East Stars up from 67% to 83%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: South East Stars chose to bat
match referees: AM Smith
umpires: BJ Peverall, G Bambury

Match history & source

On 19 May 2024, South East Stars played Western Storm at County Ground, Bristol. Recorded result: South East Stars won by 4 runs.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

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