SunrisersversusThunder

9 Jun 2024 · T20

Stanley Park, Blackpool · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Thunder won by 5 wickets

Sunrisers20.0 overs151/9 Thunder19.3 overs155/5 Stanley Park, Blackpool ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers started on 43%; Sunrisers batted first.

Sunrisers’s chance of winning (%) · Thunder is the rest

Sunrisers's chances ranged from 3% to 69% during the match (Thunder: 31% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.3: NM Hancock to S Ecclestone, four by S Ecclestone. Thunder up from 41% to 56%.
2nd inns 18.2: E Gray to S Ecclestone, S Ecclestone out. Sunrisers up from 24% to 43%.
2nd inns 19.2: G Scrivens to KL Cross, six by KL Cross. Thunder up from 66% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Match details

Toss: Sunrisers chose to bat
match referees: SM Bartlett
umpires: J Naeem, PJ Hartley

Match history & source

On 9 Jun 2024, Sunrisers played Thunder at Stanley Park, Blackpool. Recorded result: Thunder won by 5 wickets.

Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.