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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women
12 Jan 2025 · ODI
North Sydney Oval · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 17%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 28% during the match (Australia: 72% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Amy Jones · Lauren Filer1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Lauren Filer | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Alyssa Healybowled · Charlie Dean11 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Charlie Dean | 70 | 78 | 11 | 0 | 89.74 |
 Ellyse Perrylbw · Lauren Bell2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Lauren Bell | 14 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 60.87 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Danielle Wyatt · Sophie Ecclestone4 fours · 1 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Danielle Wyatt · b Sophie Ecclestone |
| 28 |
| 28 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 100.00 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught · Danielle Wyatt · Lauren Filer2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Danielle Wyatt · b Lauren Filer | 10 | 26 | 2 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnernot out5 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 42* | 44 | 5 | 1 | 95.45 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathcaught · Maia Bouchier · Sophie Ecclestone0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Maia Bouchier · b Sophie Ecclestone | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
 Alana Kingnot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 12 | 2 | 0 | 91.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 10 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Bell1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 2.78 | 1 | 0 |
 Lauren Filer0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 58 | 2 | 7.25 | 5 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 47 | 1 | 5.22 | 0 | 0 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 8.47 | 5 | 0 |
 Sophie Ecclestone1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Phoebe Litchfield, 1.5) · 2-43 (Ellyse Perry, 8.4) · 3-104 (Beth Mooney, 16.4) · 4-124 (Annabel Sutherland, 23.2) · 5-164 (Alyssa Healy, 31.2) · 6-183 (Tahlia McGrath, 35.5)
Recorded target: 205 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 18/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 18/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 19 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 10 | 8 | 53/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 59/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 60/2 |
| 13 | 15 | 75/2 |
| 14 | 10 | 85/2 |
| 15 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 97/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 104/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 105/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 111/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 117/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 120/3 |
| 22 | 2 | 122/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 123/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 126/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 131/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 138/4 |
| 27 | 8 | 146/4 |
| 28 | 7 | 153/4 |
| 29 | 0 | 153/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 159/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 164/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 166/5 |
| 33 | 4 | 170/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 171/5 |
| 35 | 5 | 176/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 183/6 |
| 37 | 9 | 192/6 |
| 38 | 10 | 202/6 |
| 39 | 4 | 206/6 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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