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Australia Women tour of New Zealand · 2024/25 · Women
23 Dec 2024 · ODI
Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 85%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alyssa Healybowled · Amelia Kerr4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 39 | 44 | 4 | 0 | 88.64 |
 Phoebe Litchfieldcaught · Suzie Bates · Rosemary Mair5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suzie Bates · b Rosemary Mair | 50 | 59 | 5 | 0 | 84.75 |
 Ellyse Perrybowled · Amelia Kerr2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 14 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 107.69 |
 Beth Mooneycaught · Brooke Halliday · Rosemary Mair0 fours · 0 sixes |
Australia's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Brooke Halliday · b Rosemary Mair |
| 2 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 40.00 |
 Annabel Sutherlandcaught and bowled · Sophie Devine6 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Sophie Devine | 42 | 43 | 6 | 0 | 97.67 |
|---|
 Ashleigh Gardnerbowled · Amelia Kerr9 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 74 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 119.35 |
|---|
 Tahlia McGrathcaught · Amelia Kerr · Sophie Devine0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amelia Kerr · b Sophie Devine | 10 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 30.30 |
|---|
 Alana Kinglbw · Amelia Kerr1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Amelia Kerr | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Kim Garthcaught · Molly Penfold · Rosemary Mair0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Molly Penfold · b Rosemary Mair | 10 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 58.82 |
|---|
 Megan Schuttrun out · Maddy Green · Rosemary Mair0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Maddy Green | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
|---|
 Darcie Brownnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 33 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosemary Mair0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 58 | 3 | 5.80 | 3 | 0 |
| Molly Penfold0 maidens · 9 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 73 | 0 | 7.30 | 9 | 0 |
 Sophie Devine1 maidens · 13 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 49 | 2 | 5.44 | 13 | 0 |
| Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 0 | 5.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 4 | 5.40 | 8 | 0 |
1-88 (Alyssa Healy, 14.1) · 2-116 (Ellyse Perry, 19.0) · 3-118 (Phoebe Litchfield, 19.3) · 4-127 (Beth Mooney, 21.4) · 5-190 (Annabel Sutherland, 31.1) · 6-230 (Tahlia McGrath, 41.1) · 7-274 (Ashleigh Gardner, 44.3) · 8-275 (Alana King, 44.5) · 9-288 (Megan Schutt, 48.3) · 10-290 (Kim Garth, 49.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 1 | 24/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 27/0 |
| 7 | 7 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 11 | 45/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 50/0 |
| 10 | 11 | 61/0 |
| 11 | 5 | 66/0 |
| 12 | 3 | 69/0 |
| 13 | 11 | 80/0 |
| 14 | 5 | 85/0 |
| 15 | 5 | 90/1 |
| 16 | 7 | 97/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 102/1 |
| 18 | 11 | 113/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 116/2 |
| 20 | 6 | 122/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 126/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 127/4 |
| 23 | 5 | 132/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 138/4 |
| 25 | 6 | 144/4 |
| 26 | 4 | 148/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 154/4 |
| 28 | 10 | 164/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 169/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 171/4 |
| 31 | 14 | 185/4 |
| 32 | 12 | 197/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 200/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 202/5 |
| 35 | 6 | 208/5 |
| 36 | 0 | 208/5 |
| 37 | 9 | 217/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 218/5 |
| 39 | 6 | 224/5 |
| 40 | 3 | 227/5 |
| 41 | 3 | 230/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 236/6 |
| 43 | 12 | 248/6 |
| 44 | 21 | 269/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 275/8 |
| 46 | 7 | 282/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 286/8 |
| 48 | 2 | 288/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 290/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Megan Schutt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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