West IndiesversusBangladesh

27 Oct 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

West Indies won by 16 runs

West Indies20.0 overs165/3 Bangladesh19.4 overs149/10 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

26%West Indies74%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than West Indies (1,590 vs 1,456 on our results rating)
Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

West Indies started on 26%; West Indies batted first.

West Indies’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

West Indies's chances ranged from 19% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 81%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.2: AJ Hosein to Saif Hassan, Saif Hassan out. West Indies up from 38% to 55%.
2nd inns 5.3: JO Holder to Shamim Hossain, Shamim Hossain out. West Indies up from 56% to 78%.
2nd inns 8.3: K Pierre to Nurul Hasan, Nurul Hasan out. West Indies up from 73% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

West Indies165/3 Bangladesh149/10

Innings 1

West Indies

165/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

West Indies batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Alick Athanazebowled · Rishad Hossain 4 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Rishad Hossain	34	27	4	1	125.93
Brandon Kingcaught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Tanzim Hasan Sakib · b Taskin Ahmed	33	36	1	2	91.67
Shai Hopenot out 1 fours · 4 sixes	not out	46*	28	1	4	164.29
Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Litton Das · Taskin Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Litton Das · b Taskin Ahmed	0	1	0	0	0.00
Rovman Powellnot out 1 fours · 4 sixes	not out	44*	28	1

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nasum Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	15	0	3.75	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	3
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	0	11.75	1
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	0	6.00	1
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	1	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	3	6/0
3	7	13/0
4	17	30/0
5	4	34/0
6	1	35/0
7	13	48/0
8	10	58/0
9	4	62/1
10	8	70/1
11	9	79/1
12	3	82/1
13	2	84/3
14	14	98/3
15	3	101/3
16	9	110/3
17	4	114/3
18	15	129/3
19	14	143/3
20	22	165/3

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