Sydney ThunderversusHobart Hurricanes

9 Nov 2025 · T20

Allan Border Field, Brisbane · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 6 wickets

Sydney Thunder20.0 overs181/8 Hobart Hurricanes19.3 overs182/4 Allan Border Field, Brisbane ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sydney Thunder started on 49%; Sydney Thunder batted first.

Sydney Thunder’s chance of winning (%) · Hobart Hurricanes is the rest

Sydney Thunder's chances ranged from 0% to 89% during the match (Hobart Hurricanes: 11% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.4: S Ismail to L Lee, L Lee out. Sydney Thunder up from 73% to 82%.
2nd inns 11.1: Hasrat Gill to DN Wyatt, six by DN Wyatt. Hobart Hurricanes up from 28% to 36%.
2nd inns 11.6: Hasrat Gill to DN Wyatt, six by DN Wyatt. Hobart Hurricanes up from 35% to 46%.

Tested on every ball of 360 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.172, against 0.236 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sydney Thunder181/8 Hobart Hurricanes182/4

Innings 2

Hobart Hurricanes

182/419.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Hobart Hurricanes batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Lizelle Leecaught · Taneale Peschel · Shabnim Ismail 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Taneale Peschel · b Shabnim Ismail	13	11	3	0	118.18
Danielle Wyattcaught · Heather Knight · Samantha Bates 9 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Heather Knight · b Samantha Bates	90	52	9	3	173.08
Nat Sciver-Bruntbowled · Samantha Bates 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Samantha Bates	4	5	1	0	80.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Shabnim Ismail0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	1	0
Samantha Bates0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	2	9.75	0	0
Taneale Peschel0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	43	0	14.33	0	1
Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	26	0	7.43	1	0
Hasrat Gill0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0	0
Georgia Voll0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	8	17/0
3	1	18/1
4	9	27/2
5	10	37/2
6	8	45/2
7	2	47/2
8	13	60/2
9	8	68/2
10	10	78/2
11	11	89/2
12	16	105/2
13	9	114/2
14	14	128/2
15	12	140/2
16	20	160/2
17	10	170/2
18	8	178/3
19	1	179/4
20	3	182/4

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Sydney ThunderversusHobart Hurricanes

Hobart Hurricanes won by 6 wickets

How the win chances moved

Biggest swings

Hobart Hurricanes

Fall of wickets