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UAE Women's ODI Tri-Series · 2024 · Women
12 Apr 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 46%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 45% to 100% during the match (Papua New Guinea: 0% to 55%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naoani Varebowled · Priyanaz Chatterji 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Priyanaz Chatterji | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Brenda Taucaught · Hannah Rainey · Saskia Horley 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hannah Rainey · b Saskia Horley | 25 | 57 | 1 | 0 | 43.86 |
| Tanya Rumacaught · Kathryn Bryce · Hannah Rainey 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kathryn Bryce · b Hannah Rainey | 20 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 76.92 |
| Sibona Jimmybowled · Nayma Sheikh 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nayma Sheikh | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
| Pauke Siakacaught and bowled · Katherine Fraser 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Darcey Carter · b Kathryn Bryce |
| 31 |
| 53 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 58.49 |
| Melanie Anilbw · Saskia Horley 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saskia Horley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| HJ Thomasbowled · Saskia Horley 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Saskia Horley | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Vicky Araabowled · Kathryn Bryce 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kathryn Bryce | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Isabel Touabowled · Katherine Fraser 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Katherine Fraser | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| D Lohianot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Kathryn Bryce1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 2.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Nayma Sheikh1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 1.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannah Rainey1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 1 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 3.32 | 4 | 0 |
| Saskia Horley1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 22 | 3 | 3.14 | 1 | 0 |
| Darcey Carter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Naoani Vare, 2.3) · 2-41 (Tanya Ruma, 10.0) · 3-50 (Sibona Jimmy, 14.4) · 4-51 (Pauke Siaka, 15.3) · 5-71 (Brenda Tau, 22.5) · 6-71 (Melanie Ani, 23.0) · 7-77 (HJ Thomas, 24.2) · 8-99 (Vicky Araa, 29.4) · 9-109 (K Frank, 32.0) · 10-113 (Isabel Toua, 34.5)
Recorded target: 218 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 24/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 33/1 |
| 10 | 8 | 41/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 51/3 |
| 16 | 2 | 53/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 18 | 5 | 60/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 60/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 62/4 |
| 21 | 4 | 66/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 70/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 71/6 |
| 24 | 6 | 77/6 |
| 25 | 2 | 79/7 |
| 26 | 1 | 80/7 |
| 27 | 8 | 88/7 |
| 28 | 5 | 93/7 |
| 29 | 5 | 98/7 |
| 30 | 3 | 101/8 |
| 31 | 6 | 107/8 |
| 32 | 2 | 109/9 |
| 33 | 2 | 111/9 |
| 34 | 1 | 112/9 |
| 35 | 1 | 113/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.