NetherlandsversusBangladesh

31 May 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Netherlands won by 8 runs

Netherlands20.0 overs162/5 Bangladesh20.0 overs154/8 Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Netherlands more likely to win

63%Netherlands37%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,681 vs 1,536 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 2 and Netherlands won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 58%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 56% to 95% during the match (Bangladesh: 5% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: IJR Zwilling to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Netherlands up from 69% to 78%.
2nd inns 3.1: S Siegers to Sharmin Akhter, Sharmin Akhter out. Netherlands up from 79% to 87%.
2nd inns 16.2: S Siegers to Shorna Akter, Shorna Akter out. Netherlands up from 76% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands162/5 Bangladesh154/8

Innings 2

Bangladesh

154/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Heather Siegers · Iris Zwilling 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Heather Siegers · b Iris Zwilling	9	9	1	0	100.00
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · P Molkenboer · Frederique Overdijk 3 fours · 0 sixes	caught · P Molkenboer · b Frederique Overdijk	22	24	3	0	91.67
Sharmin Akhtercaught · Babette de Leede · Silver Siegers 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Babette de Leede · b Silver Siegers	2	4	0	0	50.00
Nigar Sultanacaught · Sterre Kalis · Heather Siegers 7 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Sterre Kalis · b Heather Siegers	77	51	7	1	150.98

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Iris Zwilling0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	1	6.00	0
Heather Siegers0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	3	9.75	2
Silver Siegers0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	1
Caroline de Lange0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	17	0	8.50	0
I van der Woning0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	1	7.50	2
Frederique Overdijk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	7	10/0
3	3	13/1
4	6	19/2
5	6	25/2
6	10	35/2
7	8	43/2
8	4	47/2
9	6	53/3
10	5	58/3
11	9	67/3
12	6	73/4
13	14	87/4
14	8	95/4
15	13	108/4
16	9	117/4
17	5	122/5
18	11	133/5
19	12	145/5
20	9	154/8

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