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Zimbabwe Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
11 Mar 2026 · ODI
University Oval, Dunedin · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 74%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 74% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 26%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modester Mupachikwalbw · Bree Illing 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bree Illing | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Chipo Mugericaught · Izzy Gaze · Nensi Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Izzy Gaze · b Nensi Patel | 22 | 44 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
| B Bizacaught · Emma McLeod · Rosemary Mair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emma McLeod · b Rosemary Mair | 15 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Chiedza Dhururubowled · Rosemary Mair 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Rosemary Mair | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10.00 |
| Loren Tshumabowled · Jess Kerr 6 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jess Kerr | 34 | 41 | 6 | 1 | 82.93 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Izzy Gaze · b Amelia Kerr |
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 18.75 |
| A Zimunubowled · Amelia Kerr 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
| Audrey Mazvishayalbw · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Amelia Kerr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| T Makushabowled · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Amelia Kerr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandacaught · Jess Kerr · Amelia Kerr 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jess Kerr · b Amelia Kerr | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
 Precious Marangenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jess Kerr0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 5.00 | 5 | 0 |
| Bree Illing0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2.80 | 2 | 0 |
| Nensi Patel1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 2.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Rosemary Mair1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 3.20 | 2 | 0 |
 Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 22 | 5 | 6.95 | 6 | 0 |
1-8 (Modester Mupachikwa, 2.0) · 2-39 (B Biza, 11.1) · 3-41 (Chiedza Dhururu, 13.1) · 4-55 (Chipo Mugeri, 16.3) · 5-66 (Christabel Chatonzwa, 21.5) · 6-76 (A Zimunu, 23.2) · 7-76 (Audrey Mazvishaya, 23.3) · 8-76 (T Makusha, 23.4) · 9-103 (Loren Tshuma, 27.0) · 10-103 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 27.1)
Recorded target: 304 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 5 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 28/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 31/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 38/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 39/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 41/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 52/3 |
| 16 | 1 | 53/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 18 | 7 | 62/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 63/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 65/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 65/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 67/5 |
| 23 | 5 | 72/5 |
| 24 | 4 | 76/8 |
| 25 | 5 | 81/8 |
| 26 | 16 | 97/8 |
| 27 | 6 | 103/9 |
| 28 | 0 | 103/10 |
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Precious Marange: Foreign and Commonwealth Office · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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