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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women
30 Jan 2025 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontbowled · Alana King5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana King | 47 | 124 | 5 | 0 | 37.90 |
| Maia Bouchierbowled · Darcie Brown 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Darcie Brown | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 8.33 |
 Heather Knightcaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Ashleigh Gardner4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Ashleigh Gardner | 32 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 42.67 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntlbw · Alana King3 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Alana King |
| 18 |
| 17 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 105.88 |
 Sophia Dunkleybowled · Alana King1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana King | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Danielle Wyattcaught · Darcie Brown · Ashleigh Gardner0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Darcie Brown · b Ashleigh Gardner | 2 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 15.38 |
|---|
 Amy Jonescaught · Beth Mooney · Ashleigh Gardner1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Ashleigh Gardner | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonecaught · Alana King · Ashleigh Gardner2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alana King · b Ashleigh Gardner | 18 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 36.00 |
|---|
| Ryana MacDonald-Gaycaught · Darcie Brown · Alana King 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Darcie Brown · b Alana King | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 4.35 |
|---|
 Lauren Filercaught · Annabel Sutherland · Alana King1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annabel Sutherland · b Alana King | 14 | 45 | 1 | 0 | 31.11 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kim Garth1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.14 | 0 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 3.29 | 0 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner11 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 11 | 39 | 4 | 1.56 | 0 | 0 |
 Alana King9 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.4 | 9 | 53 | 5 | 2.24 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Maia Bouchier, 3.5) · 2-79 (Heather Knight, 29.5) · 3-100 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 34.5) · 4-104 (Sophia Dunkley, 36.2) · 5-109 (Danielle Wyatt, 40.0) · 6-109 (Tammy Beaumont, 40.4) · 7-117 (Amy Jones, 46.0) · 8-122 (Ryana MacDonald-Gay, 53.0) · 9-134 (Sophie Ecclestone, 57.2) · 10-148 (Lauren Filer, 68.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 4/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 15/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 18/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 22/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 23/1 |
| 11 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 30/1 |
| 13 | 0 | 30/1 |
| 14 | 0 | 30/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 30/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 31/1 |
| 17 | 0 | 31/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 19 | 9 | 46/1 |
| 20 | 0 | 46/1 |
| 21 | 10 | 56/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 62/1 |
| 23 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 24 | 0 | 62/1 |
| 25 | 2 | 64/1 |
| 26 | 1 | 65/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 71/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 76/1 |
| 29 | 3 | 79/1 |
| 30 | 0 | 79/2 |
| 31 | 9 | 88/2 |
| 32 | 2 | 90/2 |
| 33 | 1 | 91/2 |
| 34 | 3 | 94/2 |
| 35 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 36 | 0 | 100/3 |
| 37 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 38 | 0 | 104/4 |
| 39 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 40 | 3 | 109/5 |
| 41 | 0 | 109/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 111/6 |
| 43 | 0 | 111/6 |
| 44 | 5 | 116/6 |
| 45 | 0 | 116/6 |
| 46 | 1 | 117/7 |
| 47 | 4 | 121/7 |
| 48 | 1 | 122/7 |
| 49 | 0 | 122/7 |
| 50 | 0 | 122/7 |
| 51 | 0 | 122/7 |
| 52 | 0 | 122/7 |
| 53 | 0 | 122/8 |
| 54 | 1 | 123/8 |
| 55 | 8 | 131/8 |
| 56 | 0 | 131/8 |
| 57 | 3 | 134/8 |
| 58 | 0 | 134/9 |
| 59 | 1 | 135/9 |
| 60 | 0 | 135/9 |
| 61 | 0 | 135/9 |
| 62 | 0 | 135/9 |
| 63 | 0 | 135/9 |
| 64 | 3 | 138/9 |
| 65 | 1 | 139/9 |
| 66 | 1 | 140/9 |
| 67 | 1 | 141/9 |
| 68 | 5 | 146/9 |
| 69 | 2 | 148/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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