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Women's Ashes · 2024/25 · Women
30 Jan 2025 · Test
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tammy Beaumontlbw · Darcie Brown1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Darcie Brown | 8 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 53.33 |
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Beth Mooney · Kim Garth 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Beth Mooney · b Kim Garth | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Heather Knightlbw · Kim Garth2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kim Garth | 25 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Nat Sciver-Bruntbowled · Alana King4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Alana King |
| 51 |
| 129 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 39.53 |
 Sophia Dunkleycaught and bowled · Alana King4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Alana King | 21 | 71 | 4 | 0 | 29.58 |
|---|
 Danielle Wyattcaught · Phoebe Litchfield · Alana King3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Phoebe Litchfield · b Alana King | 22 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 47.83 |
|---|
 Amy Jonesbowled · Ashleigh Gardner0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ashleigh Gardner | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Sophie Ecclestonecaught · Kim Garth · Alana King0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kim Garth · b Alana King | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
|---|
| Ryana MacDonald-Gaynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 15* | 66 | 0 | 0 | 22.73 |
|---|
 Lauren Filercaught · Georgia Voll · Darcie Brown2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Georgia Voll · b Darcie Brown | 8 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Lauren Bellrun out · Beth Mooney, Darcie Brown · Ashleigh Gardner1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Beth Mooney, Darcie Brown | 7 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 30.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kim Garth4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 1.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Darcie Brown4 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 4 | 47 | 2 | 2.61 | 1 | 0 |
 Annabel Sutherland0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Ashleigh Gardner2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.4 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 2.81 | 0 | 0 |
 Alana King6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 6 | 45 | 4 | 1.96 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Maia Bouchier, 0.4) · 2-23 (Tammy Beaumont, 7.1) · 3-47 (Heather Knight, 16.0) · 4-97 (Sophia Dunkley, 38.1) · 5-127 (Danielle Wyatt, 48.4) · 6-130 (Amy Jones, 51.1) · 7-131 (Sophie Ecclestone, 52.2) · 8-144 (Nat Sciver-Brunt, 59.0) · 9-157 (Lauren Filer, 63.3) · 10-170 (Lauren Bell, 71.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 19/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 0 | 23/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 25/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 29/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 34/2 |
| 13 | 10 | 44/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 44/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 47/3 |
| 17 | 1 | 48/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 48/3 |
| 19 | 3 | 51/3 |
| 20 | 0 | 51/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 55/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 56/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 63/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 64/3 |
| 25 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 64/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 66/3 |
| 28 | 1 | 67/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 30 | 1 | 72/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 73/3 |
| 32 | 1 | 74/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 78/3 |
| 34 | 0 | 78/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 81/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 88/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 95/3 |
| 38 | 2 | 97/3 |
| 39 | 0 | 97/4 |
| 40 | 2 | 99/4 |
| 41 | 0 | 99/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 43 | 1 | 102/4 |
| 44 | 6 | 108/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 112/4 |
| 46 | 4 | 116/4 |
| 47 | 4 | 120/4 |
| 48 | 5 | 125/4 |
| 49 | 3 | 128/5 |
| 50 | 2 | 130/5 |
| 51 | 0 | 130/5 |
| 52 | 1 | 131/6 |
| 53 | 5 | 136/7 |
| 54 | 0 | 136/7 |
| 55 | 1 | 137/7 |
| 56 | 4 | 141/7 |
| 57 | 0 | 141/7 |
| 58 | 1 | 142/7 |
| 59 | 2 | 144/8 |
| 60 | 5 | 149/8 |
| 61 | 1 | 150/8 |
| 62 | 0 | 150/8 |
| 63 | 4 | 154/8 |
| 64 | 3 | 157/9 |
| 65 | 0 | 157/9 |
| 66 | 2 | 159/9 |
| 67 | 1 | 160/9 |
| 68 | 1 | 161/9 |
| 69 | 1 | 162/9 |
| 70 | 7 | 169/9 |
| 71 | 1 | 170/9 |
| 72 | 0 | 170/10 |
Tahlia McGrath: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ellyse Perry: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade · CC BY 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ashleigh Gardner: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Beth Mooney: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alyssa Healy: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Darcie Brown: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kim Garth: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Annabel Sutherland: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Georgia Voll: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alana King: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Phoebe Litchfield: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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