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Sri Lanka tour of West Indies · 2026 · Men
13 Jun 2026 · T20
Sabina Park · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Sri Lanka started on 24%; Sri Lanka batted first.
Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 14% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 86%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kinglbw · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dushmantha Chameera | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Shai Hopelbw · Dunith Wellalage1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Dunith Wellalage | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
 Shimron Hetmyerrun out · Pavan Rathnayake · Mahesh Theekshana4 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Pavan Rathnayake | 36 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 138.46 |
| Rovman Powellcaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Mahesh Theekshana 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Mahesh Theekshana | 43 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 165.38 |
| caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Wanindu Hasaranga |
| 14 |
| 11 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 127.27 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Kamindu Mendis · Dushmantha Chameera0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Dushmantha Chameera | 17 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdlbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Matthew Fordecaught · Dushmantha Chameera · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dushmantha Chameera · b Dunith Wellalage | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 133.33 |
|---|
| Shamar Springercaught · Pavan Rathnayake · Dushmantha Chameera 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pavan Rathnayake · b Dushmantha Chameera | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Akeal Hoseincaught · Kamil Mishara · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Kamil Mishara · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 14 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 233.33 |
|---|
| Shamar Josephnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 4 | 1 | 1 | 275.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 2 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 2.84 | 0 | 0 |
| Eshan Malinga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 41 | 0 | 13.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 3 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-7 (Shai Hope, 0.5) · 2-9 (Brandon King, 1.4) · 3-90 (Shimron Hetmyer, 9.2) · 4-91 (Rovman Powell, 10.0) · 5-108 (Sherfane Rutherford, 12.1) · 6-108 (Romario Shepherd, 12.2) · 7-119 (Matthew Forde, 13.4) · 8-122 (Shamar Springer, 15.0) · 9-144 (Akeal Hosein, 16.5) · 10-157 (Roston Chase, 18.1)
Recorded target: 195 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/2 |
| 3 | 11 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 26/2 |
| 5 | 15 | 41/2 |
| 6 | 6 | 47/2 |
| 7 | 13 | 60/2 |
| 8 | 18 | 78/2 |
| 9 | 11 | 89/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 91/4 |
| 11 | 11 | 102/4 |
| 12 | 6 | 108/4 |
| 13 | 3 | 111/6 |
| 14 | 10 | 121/7 |
| 15 | 1 | 122/8 |
| 16 | 8 | 130/8 |
| 17 | 14 | 144/9 |
| 18 | 13 | 157/9 |
| 19 | 0 | 157/10 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Shimron Hetmyer: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
