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ICC World Twenty20 Americas Sub Regional Qualifier A · 2026 · Men
22 Jun 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Panama more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Panama started on 51%; Panama batted first.
Panama's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Brazil: 0% to 64%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LF Mullerbowled · A Natubhai Ahir 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Natubhai Ahir | 23 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
| LH Rodriguescaught · Sagar Kumar Ahir · FL Patel 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sagar Kumar Ahir · b FL Patel | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
| Yasar Haroonbowled · Sagar Kumar Ahir 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sagar Kumar Ahir | 20 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 68.97 |
| MFI Assuncaobowled · MY Bawa 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b MY Bawa | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| CC Machadobowled · A Natubhai Ahir 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b A Natubhai Ahir | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| L Maximocaught · Irfan Hafejee · Nathan Ingleston0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Irfan Hafejee · b Nathan Ingleston |
| 5 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 35.71 |
| LA Goncalvesbowled · Sagar Kumar Ahir 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sagar Kumar Ahir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| W Maximostumped · P Suman Bhai Ahir · MY Bawa 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · P Suman Bhai Ahir · b MY Bawa | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| LG Morasnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 13* | 14 | 0 | 1 | 92.86 |
|---|
| G Oliveiranot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 11 | 1 | 0 | 118.18 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AM Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 9.33 | 0 | 0 |
| FL Patel0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| MY Bawa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| A Natubhai Ahir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 2.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Irfan Hafejee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 4.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Sagar Kumar Ahir0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Ingleston0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| P Jayeshbhai Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (LH Rodrigues, 3.5) · 2-31 (LF Muller, 6.0) · 3-32 (MFI Assuncao, 7.0) · 4-39 (CC Machado, 9.3) · 5-57 (Yasar Haroon, 13.4) · 6-57 (LA Goncalves, 13.5) · 7-59 (L Maximo, 15.0) · 8-62 (W Maximo, 16.4)
Recorded target: 156 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 14/0 |
| 3 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 3 | 24/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 31/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 32/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 33/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 38/3 |
| 10 | 2 | 40/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 48/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 53/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 55/4 |
| 14 | 3 | 58/6 |
| 15 | 1 | 59/7 |
| 16 | 2 | 61/7 |
| 17 | 1 | 62/8 |
| 18 | 5 | 67/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 72/8 |
| 20 | 14 | 86/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.