PakistanversusAustralia

31 Jan 2026 · T20

Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 90 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs198/5 Australia15.4 overs108/10 Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

44%Pakistan56%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and Pakistan won 3
Pakistan are playing at home in Pakistan
On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than Pakistan (1,731 vs 1,704 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 44%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 43% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 57%).

Biggest swings

1.4: MP Kuhnemann to Sahibzada Farhan, Sahibzada Farhan out. Australia up from 45% to 57%.
2nd inns 2.6: Abrar Ahmed to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. Pakistan up from 60% to 71%.
2nd inns 3.1: Saim Ayub to TM Head, TM Head out. Pakistan up from 71% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan198/5 Australia108/10

Innings 2

Australia

108/1015.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshlbw · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Abrar Ahmed	18	14	1	2	128.57
Travis Headbowled · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Saim Ayub	4	5	1	0	80.00
Cameron Greencaught · Shadab Khan · Usman Tariq 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Shadab Khan · b Usman Tariq	35	20	1	2	175.00
Josh Inglislbw · Abrar Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Naseem Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	0
Saim Ayub0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	0
Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	3	4.67	0
Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	1	5.50	0
Shadab Khan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	3	6.50	1
Usman Tariq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.4	16	2	6.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	7	16/0
3	6	22/1
4	6	28/2
5	1	29/3
6	19	48/3
7	6	54/4
8	2	56/5
9	5	61/5
10	10	71/5
11	6	77/6
12	4	81/6
13	7	88/6
14	10	98/8
15	7	105/9
16	3	108/10

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