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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
22 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Uganda more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 94%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Nigeria: 0% to 12%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sulaimon Runsewebowled · Juma Miyagi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Juma Miyagi | 7 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 77.78 |
| S Chilemanyabowled · Dinesh Nakrani 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dinesh Nakrani | 17 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 73.91 |
| O Olaleyebowled · M Musinguzi 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b M Musinguzi | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 116.67 |
| AE Iseselecaught · Raghav Dhawan · J Baguma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Raghav Dhawan · b J Baguma | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 61.54 |
| Isaac Danladicaught · Juma Miyagi · Dinesh Nakrani 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Juma Miyagi · b Dinesh Nakrani | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| stumped · CN Kakuru · b J Baguma |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Sylvester Okpecaught · C Watuwa · M Musinguzi 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · C Watuwa · b M Musinguzi | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Isaac Okpenot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 26* | 20 | 0 | 1 | 130.00 |
|---|
| P Usenibowled · Dinesh Nakrani 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Dinesh Nakrani | 17 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 188.89 |
|---|
| Peter Ahocaught · Raghav Dhawan · J Baguma 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Raghav Dhawan · b J Baguma | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
| AA Jimohnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juma Miyagi0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 9.50 | 6 | 0 |
| AR Ramjani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
| I Mwebaze0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dinesh Nakrani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 3.67 | 0 | 0 |
| M Musinguzi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.41 | 4 | 0 |
| J Baguma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 3 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-20 (Sulaimon Runsewe, 3.0) · 2-34 (S Chilemanya, 5.3) · 3-43 (O Olaleye, 7.4) · 4-51 (Isaac Danladi, 8.5) · 5-52 (Mohameed Taiwo, 9.1) · 6-55 (AE Isesele, 10.0) · 7-65 (Sylvester Okpe, 12.4) · 8-87 (P Useni, 14.4) · 9-94 (Peter Aho, 15.5)
Recorded target: 148 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 17/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 32/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 35/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 41/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 52/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 55/6 |
| 11 | 3 | 58/6 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/6 |
| 13 | 4 | 65/7 |
| 14 | 19 | 84/7 |
| 15 | 3 | 87/8 |
| 16 | 7 | 94/9 |
| 17 | 11 | 105/9 |
| 18 | 4 | 109/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.