Perth ScorchersversusMelbourne Renegades

7 Jan 2025 · T20

Perth Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 4 wickets

Perth Scorchers20.0 overs147/8 Melbourne Renegades19.4 overs150/6 Perth Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Perth Scorchers started on 64%; Perth Scorchers batted first.

Perth Scorchers’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Perth Scorchers's chances ranged from 16% to 96% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 5% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: JP Behrendorff to W Sutherland, 2 runs to W Sutherland. Melbourne Renegades up from 58% to 77%.
2nd inns 18.5: JA Richardson to W Sutherland, W Sutherland out. Perth Scorchers up from 25% to 48%.
2nd inns 19.2: M Kelly to TS Rogers, six by TS Rogers. Melbourne Renegades up from 31% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.