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Photo: user:jguk
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Vitality Blast Men · 2026 · Men
8 Jul 2026 · T20
The Oval · Venue photographSussex started on 32%; Sussex batted first.
Sussex's chances ranged from 0% to 59% during the match (Surrey: 41% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 8 Jul 2026, Sussex played Surrey at The Oval. Recorded result: Surrey won by 8 wickets.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.