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Ireland tour of United Arab Emirates · 2025/26 · Men
25 Jan 2026 · T20
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 46%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 39% to 100% during the match (Italy: 0% to 61%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Moscacaught · Ross Adair · Barry McCarthy 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ross Adair · b Barry McCarthy | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| AJ Moscacaught · Ben Calitz · Gareth Delany 3 fours · 5 sixes | caught · Ben Calitz · b Gareth Delany | 69 | 48 | 3 | 5 | 143.75 |
| Jon-Jon Smutscaught · Ben Calitz · Mark Adair 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Calitz · b Mark Adair | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
 Wayne Madsennot out8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 61* | 46 | 8 | 0 | 132.61 |
 Grant Stewartcaught · Harry Tector · Barry McCarthy0 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Harry Tector · b Barry McCarthy |
| 11 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 137.50 |
| Harry Manentinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Humphreys0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mark Adair0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 1 |
| Barry McCarthy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 43 | 2 | 10.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua Little0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 9.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Gareth Delany0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-12 (J Mosca, 2.3) · 2-17 (Jon-Jon Smuts, 3.3) · 3-142 (AJ Mosca, 17.1) · 4-156 (Grant Stewart, 18.5)
Recorded target: 191 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 13/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 7 | 30/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 48/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 57/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 62/2 |
| 11 | 12 | 74/2 |
| 12 | 8 | 82/2 |
| 13 | 20 | 102/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 113/2 |
| 15 | 15 | 128/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 134/2 |
| 17 | 8 | 142/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 146/3 |
| 19 | 14 | 160/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 166/4 |
Harry Tector: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Paul Stirling: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Grant Stewart: Blue Square Thing · CC0
George Dockrell: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Wayne Madsen: Parklands cobbler · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
