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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Men
26 Sept 2024 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Pathum Nissanka · Asitha Fernando0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pathum Nissanka · b Asitha Fernando | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 9 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 7 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 13.21 |
 |
| lbw · b Nishan Peiris |
| 8 |
| 41 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 19.51 |
 Rachin Ravindrabowled · Nishan Peiris1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nishan Peiris | 10 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Angelo Mathews · Prabath Jayasuriya 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Angelo Mathews · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 13 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 86.67 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipscaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Nishan Peiris 4 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nishan Peiris | 29 | 51 | 4 | 1 | 56.86 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 William O’Rourkenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asitha Fernando1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Nishan Peiris3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.5 | 3 | 33 | 3 | 1.85 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 6 | 42 | 6 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Tom Latham, 0.5) · 2-19 (Devon Conway, 8.2) · 3-24 (Kane Williamson, 17.0) · 4-41 (Rachin Ravindra, 23.5) · 5-52 (Ajaz Patel, 25.2) · 6-53 (Tom Blundell, 26.1) · 7-53 (Glenn Phillips, 26.3) · 8-66 (Daryl Mitchell, 30.3) · 9-68 (Tim Southee, 32.3) · 10-88 (Mitchell Santner, 39.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/1 |
| 4 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 7 | 0 | 18/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 19/1 |
| 9 | 0 | 19/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 20/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 22/2 |
| 13 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 15 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 16 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 24/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 27/3 |
| 19 | 2 | 29/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 32/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 35/3 |
| 22 | 0 | 35/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 40/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 42/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 52/4 |
| 26 | 1 | 53/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 53/7 |
| 28 | 2 | 55/7 |
| 29 | 10 | 65/7 |
| 30 | 1 | 66/7 |
| 31 | 0 | 66/8 |
| 32 | 0 | 66/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 68/9 |
| 34 | 5 | 73/9 |
| 35 | 1 | 74/9 |
| 36 | 4 | 78/9 |
| 37 | 2 | 80/9 |
| 38 | 4 | 84/9 |
| 39 | 2 | 86/9 |
| 40 | 2 | 88/10 |
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ajaz Patel: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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