IndiaversusAustralia

6 Nov 2025 · T20

Carrara Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 48 runs

India20.0 overs167/8 Australia18.2 overs119/10 Carrara Oval ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

62%India38%Australia

Why

In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 8 and Australia won 2
On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Australia (1,825 vs 1,781 on our results rating)
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 60%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

India's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Australia: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 9.2: S Dube to MR Marsh, MR Marsh out. India up from 49% to 63%.
2nd inns 11.3: S Dube to TH David, TH David out. India up from 45% to 61%.
2nd inns 13.1: Arshdeep Singh to JR Philippe, JR Philippe out. India up from 64% to 80%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India167/8 Australia119/10

Innings 2

Australia

119/1018.2 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Mitchell Marshcaught · Arshdeep Singh · Shivam Dube 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Arshdeep Singh · b Shivam Dube	30	24	4	0	125.00
Matthew Shortlbw · Axar Patel 2 fours · 2 sixes	lbw · b Axar Patel	25	19	2	2	131.58
Josh Inglisbowled · Axar Patel 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Axar Patel	12	11	2	0	109.09
Tim Davidcaught · Suryakumar Yadav · Shivam Dube 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Suryakumar Yadav · b Shivam Dube	14	9	1	1	155.56
Josh Philippe

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	1	7.33	0
Jasprit Bumrah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	2	5.00	0
Shivam Dube0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	2	10.00	1
Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.2	3	3	2.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	5	11/0
3	15	26/0
4	9	35/0
5	4	39/1
6	9	48/1
7	7	55/1
8	7	62/1
9	6	68/2
10	9	77/3
11	7	84/3
12	11	95/4
13	3	98/4
14	1	99/5
15	4	103/6
16	11	114/6
17	2	116/8
18	2	118/9
19	1	119/10

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