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West Indies Women tour of Pakistan · 2024 · Women
21 Apr 2024 · ODI
National Stadium, Karachi · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 42%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewscaught · Diana Baig · Umm-e-Hani3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Diana Baig · b Umm-e-Hani | 44 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 69.84 |
| Rashada Williamscaught · Muneeba Ali · Nida Dar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Muneeba Ali · b Nida Dar | 7 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 29.17 |
 Shemaine Campbellecaught · Sadaf Shamas · Umm-e-Hani4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sadaf Shamas · b Umm-e-Hani | 52 | 73 | 4 | 0 | 71.23 |
 Stafanie Taylorcaught · Fatima Sana · Sadia Iqbal9 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Fatima Sana · b Sadia Iqbal |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 2% to 67% during the match (West Indies: 33% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 73 |
| 90 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 81.11 |
| Chedean Nationlbw · Nida Dar 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nida Dar | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Umm-e-Hani · Nida Dar2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Umm-e-Hani · b Nida Dar | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 115.00 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynebowled · Nida Dar 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nida Dar | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
 Afy Fletchercaught · Sidra Ameen · Fatima Sana0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sidra Ameen · b Fatima Sana | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Zaida Jamesnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharacknot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Sana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
| Sadia Iqbal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 36 | 1 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Nida Dar0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 52 | 4 | 5.78 | 3 | 0 |
| Umm-e-Hani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 38 | 2 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 3.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Bismah Maroof0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-32 (Rashada Williams, 9.2) · 2-71 (Hayley Matthews, 19.3) · 3-159 (Shemaine Campbelle, 37.1) · 4-182 (Chedean Nation, 41.3) · 5-206 (Stafanie Taylor, 46.1) · 6-216 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 48.4) · 7-219 (Chinelle Henry, 49.0) · 8-221 (Afy Fletcher, 49.5)
Recorded target: 224 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 8/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 16/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 19/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 21/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 26/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 32/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 37/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 49/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 53/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 56/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 60/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 64/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 66/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 67/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 71/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 73/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 80/2 |
| 24 | 9 | 89/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 92/2 |
| 26 | 10 | 102/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 105/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 110/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 117/2 |
| 30 | 6 | 123/2 |
| 31 | 3 | 126/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 133/2 |
| 33 | 6 | 139/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 144/2 |
| 35 | 3 | 147/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 153/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 159/2 |
| 38 | 0 | 159/3 |
| 39 | 8 | 167/3 |
| 40 | 3 | 170/3 |
| 41 | 10 | 180/3 |
| 42 | 4 | 184/4 |
| 43 | 2 | 186/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 195/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 198/4 |
| 46 | 8 | 206/4 |
| 47 | 1 | 207/5 |
| 48 | 6 | 213/5 |
| 49 | 6 | 219/7 |
| 50 | 6 | 225/8 |
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bismah Maroof: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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