New ZealandversusSouth Africa

17 Mar 2026 · T20

Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 68 runs

New Zealand20.0 overs175/6 South Africa15.3 overs107/10 Seddon Park, Hamilton ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

47%New Zealand53%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than New Zealand (1,718 vs 1,661 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 70%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.4: BV Sears to C Esterhuizen, C Esterhuizen out. New Zealand up from 40% to 54%.
2nd inns 5.4: MJ Santner to PWA Mulder, PWA Mulder out. New Zealand up from 60% to 72%.
2nd inns 6.1: CE McConchie to T de Zorzi, T de Zorzi out. New Zealand up from 73% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand175/6 South Africa107/10

Innings 2

South Africa

107/1015.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Wiaan Muldercaught · Devon Conway · Mitchell Santner 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Devon Conway · b Mitchell Santner	16	20	1	1	80.00
Connor Esterhuizencaught · Tim Robinson · Ben Sears 0 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Tim Robinson · b Ben Sears	8	12	0	1	66.67
Tony de Zorzicaught · Josh Clarkson · Cole McConchie 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Josh Clarkson · b Cole McConchie	1	4	0	0	25.00
Rubin Hermanncaught · Lockie Ferguson · James Neesham 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Lockie Ferguson · b James Neesham	19	12	2	1	158.33
Jason Smithcaught · Ben Sears · Mitchell Santner1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	22	0	7.33	1
Lockie Ferguson1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.3	1	16	3	4.57	0
Ben Sears0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	14	3	4.67	3
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	19	2	6.33	0
Cole McConchie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	24	1	12.00	0
James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	0	10	1	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	2	5/0
3	12	17/0
4	7	24/0
5	5	29/1
6	2	31/2
7	7	38/3
8	13	51/3
9	4	55/3
10	10	65/4
11	4	69/5
12	17	86/5
13	5	91/7
14	1	92/9
15	7	99/9
16	8	107/10

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