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Photo: Kieran Connellan from Hamilton, New Zealand
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; display framing may vary.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
17 Mar 2026 · T20
Seddon Park, Hamilton · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 45%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 30% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 70%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Conwaycaught · Connor Esterhuizen · Wiaan Mulder 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b Wiaan Mulder | 60 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 122.45 |
 Tom Lathamcaught · Ottniel Baartman · Keshav Maharaj1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ottniel Baartman · b Keshav Maharaj | 11 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 110.00 |
| Tim Robinsonbowled · George Linde 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b George Linde | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Nick Kellybowled · Wiaan Mulder 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Wiaan Mulder | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 175.00 |
| Mitchell Santnerbowled · Ottniel Baartman 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Ottniel Baartman |
| 20 |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 142.86 |
| James Neeshamcaught · Connor Esterhuizen · Gerald Coetzee 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Connor Esterhuizen · b Gerald Coetzee | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
| Cole McConchienot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 18* | 12 | 1 | 1 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksonnot out 2 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 26* | 9 | 2 | 2 | 288.89 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Coetzee0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| N Mokoena0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 0 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Keshav Maharaj0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 15.00 | 1 | 0 |
| George Linde0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 11.00 | 4 | 0 |
 Wiaan Mulder0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-48 (Tom Latham, 6.3) · 2-55 (Tim Robinson, 7.2) · 3-92 (Nick Kelly, 10.5) · 4-120 (Mitchell Santner, 14.2) · 5-124 (Devon Conway, 15.3) · 6-140 (James Neesham, 17.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 21/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 36/0 |
| 6 | 7 | 43/0 |
| 7 | 12 | 55/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 59/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 68/2 |
| 10 | 13 | 81/2 |
| 11 | 11 | 92/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 96/3 |
| 13 | 6 | 102/3 |
| 14 | 17 | 119/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 123/4 |
| 16 | 3 | 126/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 133/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 141/6 |
| 19 | 10 | 151/6 |
| 20 | 24 | 175/6 |
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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