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Photo: SounderBruce
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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2026/27 · Men
13 Oct 2026 · ODI
Grand Prairie Stadium, Dallas · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 72%; United States of America batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael van Lingencaught · Milind Kumar · Ehsan Adil 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Ehsan Adil | 11 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 78.57 |
| Louren Steenkampbowled · Jasdeep Singh 7 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 102 | 114 | 7 | 3 | 89.47 |
| Jan Frylinckbowled · Hasan Khan 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hasan Khan | 29 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 80.56 |
| Gerhard Erasmuscaught · Hasan Khan · Harmeet Singh 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Hasan Khan · b Harmeet Singh | 95 | 102 | 4 | 1 | 93.14 |
| Zane Greennot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 28* | 23 | 1 | 1 | 121.74 |
United States of America's chances ranged from 2% to 83% during the match (Namibia: 17% to 98%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 8* |
| 2 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 400.00 |
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ehsan Adil0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 50 | 1 | 5.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 6.11 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.3 | 0 | 44 | 1 | 5.18 | 0 | 0 |
| Hasan Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 57 | 1 | 5.70 | 0 | 0 |
| Shehan Jayasuriya0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Michael van Lingen, 2.4) · 2-72 (Jan Frylinck, 14.2) · 3-221 (Louren Steenkamp, 41.0) · 4-270 (Gerhard Erasmus, 48.1)
Recorded target: 278 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 7 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 6 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 6 | 6 | 26/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 27/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 11 | 43/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 55/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 60/1 |
| 13 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 72/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 75/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 80/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 85/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 91/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 93/2 |
| 21 | 11 | 104/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 23 | 10 | 118/2 |
| 24 | 5 | 123/2 |
| 25 | 6 | 129/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 134/2 |
| 27 | 3 | 137/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 145/2 |
| 29 | 6 | 151/2 |
| 30 | 7 | 158/2 |
| 31 | 6 | 164/2 |
| 32 | 4 | 168/2 |
| 33 | 7 | 175/2 |
| 34 | 7 | 182/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 186/2 |
| 36 | 3 | 189/2 |
| 37 | 5 | 194/2 |
| 38 | 5 | 199/2 |
| 39 | 11 | 210/2 |
| 40 | 9 | 219/2 |
| 41 | 2 | 221/3 |
| 42 | 3 | 224/3 |
| 43 | 5 | 229/3 |
| 44 | 6 | 235/3 |
| 45 | 5 | 240/3 |
| 46 | 8 | 248/3 |
| 47 | 10 | 258/3 |
| 48 | 12 | 270/3 |
| 49 | 8 | 278/4 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
