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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
28 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 28%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smit Patellbw · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Junaid Siddique | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Andries Gouscaught · Waseem Muhammad · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Junaid Siddique | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Aryansh Sharma · SS Kang 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aryansh Sharma · b SS Kang | 50 | 67 | 5 | 0 | 74.63 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallalbw · Haider Ali 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Haider Ali | 8 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 34.78 |
| Shayan Jahangircaught · H Kaushik · SS Kang 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · H Kaushik · b SS Kang | 18 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 78.26 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (United States of America: 39% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| Milind Kumarbowled · Junaid Siddique 4 fours · 1 sixes |
|---|
| bowled · b Junaid Siddique |
| 71 |
| 81 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 87.65 |
 Shubham Ranjanenot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 46* | 81 | 4 | 0 | 56.79 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 13 | 2 | 0 | 107.69 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 4.40 | 1 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Haider Ali1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| SS Kang0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 2 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
| H Kaushik0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Muhammad Shahdad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Sohaib Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 24.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Smit Patel, 0.2) · 2-11 (Andries Gous, 2.5) · 3-22 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 7.5) · 4-58 (Shayan Jahangir, 15.3) · 5-110 (Monank Patel, 24.4) · 6-183 (Milind Kumar, 43.1)
Recorded target: 212 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 1 | 11/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 22/3 |
| 9 | 3 | 25/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 28/3 |
| 11 | 8 | 36/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 41/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 43/3 |
| 14 | 3 | 46/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 51/3 |
| 16 | 8 | 59/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 65/4 |
| 18 | 4 | 69/4 |
| 19 | 6 | 75/4 |
| 20 | 16 | 91/4 |
| 21 | 9 | 100/4 |
| 22 | 2 | 102/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 103/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 108/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 110/5 |
| 26 | 8 | 118/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 122/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 125/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 128/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 130/5 |
| 32 | 3 | 133/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 135/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 137/5 |
| 35 | 8 | 145/5 |
| 36 | 7 | 152/5 |
| 37 | 4 | 156/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 159/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 162/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 168/5 |
| 41 | 2 | 170/5 |
| 42 | 11 | 181/5 |
| 43 | 2 | 183/5 |
| 44 | 8 | 191/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 197/6 |
| 46 | 2 | 199/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 200/6 |
| 48 | 5 | 205/6 |
| 49 | 4 | 209/6 |
| 50 | 4 | 213/6 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
