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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2025/26 · Men
28 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United States of America more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 28%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Alishan Sharafucaught · Milind Kumar · Saurabh Netravalkar0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
| Aryansh Sharmacaught · Milind Kumar · R Ugarkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b R Ugarkar | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Muhammad Shahdadcaught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · Jasdeep Singh 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saiteja Mukkamalla · b Jasdeep Singh | 34 | 79 | 3 | 0 | 43.04 |
| Rahul Chopralbw · Shubham Ranjane 4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shubham Ranjane | 36 | 59 | 4 | 0 | 61.02 |
| Sohaib Khanrun out · R Ugarkar · Jasdeep Singh4 fours · 1 sixes |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 1% to 61% during the match (United States of America: 39% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · R Ugarkar |
| 27 |
| 28 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 96.43 |
| Waseem Muhammadcaught · Monank Patel · Shubham Ranjane 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Shubham Ranjane | 21 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 72.41 |
|---|
| H Kaushikbowled · Jasdeep Singh 1 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Jasdeep Singh | 53 | 54 | 1 | 4 | 98.15 |
|---|
| Haider Alicaught · R Ugarkar · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Ugarkar · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 43.48 |
|---|
| SS Kangnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquecaught · Shayan Jahangir · Saurabh Netravalkar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shayan Jahangir · b Saurabh Netravalkar | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Muhammad Rohidnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saurabh Netravalkar2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 28 | 3 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| R Ugarkar0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 4.60 | 2 | 0 |
| Jasdeep Singh1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 51 | 2 | 5.10 | 1 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 44 | 2 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Milind Kumar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 4.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 26 | 0 | 3.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-2 (Alishan Sharafu, 1.0) · 2-4 (Aryansh Sharma, 1.3) · 3-70 (Rahul Chopra, 20.4) · 4-106 (Sohaib Khan, 28.3) · 5-108 (Muhammad Shahdad, 30.1) · 6-150 (Waseem Muhammad, 39.2) · 7-174 (Haider Ali, 45.2) · 8-195 (H Kaushik, 47.3) · 9-198 (Junaid Siddique, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 11/2 |
| 5 | 1 | 12/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 20/2 |
| 7 | 1 | 21/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 25/2 |
| 10 | 4 | 29/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 32/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 37/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 17 | 9 | 57/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 63/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 64/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 21 | 4 | 71/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 76/3 |
| 23 | 6 | 82/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 27 | 10 | 97/3 |
| 28 | 5 | 102/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 106/4 |
| 30 | 2 | 108/4 |
| 31 | 0 | 108/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 109/5 |
| 33 | 2 | 111/5 |
| 34 | 9 | 120/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 124/5 |
| 36 | 9 | 133/5 |
| 37 | 9 | 142/5 |
| 38 | 5 | 147/5 |
| 39 | 1 | 148/5 |
| 40 | 5 | 153/6 |
| 41 | 2 | 155/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 158/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 161/6 |
| 44 | 8 | 169/6 |
| 45 | 5 | 174/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 182/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 185/7 |
| 48 | 13 | 198/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 201/9 |
| 50 | 10 | 211/9 |
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
