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Pearl of Africa T20I Series · 2025 · Men
19 Jul 2025 · T20
Recorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Uganda started on 47%; Uganda batted first.
Uganda's chances ranged from 7% to 96% during the match (United Arab Emirates: 4% to 93%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrideep Mangelalbw · Saghir Khan 3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Saghir Khan | 39 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 102.63 |
| R Lutaayacaught · Rahul Chopra · D Parashar 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b D Parashar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Raghav Dhawancaught · Alishan Sharafu · Zuhaib Zubair 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Zuhaib Zubair | 44 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 104.76 |
| Robinson Obuyacaught · Saghir Khan · Haider Ali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saghir Khan · b Haider Ali | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| Dinesh Nakranicaught · Waseem Muhammad · Saghir Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Waseem Muhammad · b Saghir Khan | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
| CN Kakurucaught · Haider Ali · Zuhaib Zubair 0 fours · 0 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Haider Ali · b Zuhaib Zubair |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 66.67 |
| AR Ramjaninot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 21* | 12 | 2 | 0 | 175.00 |
|---|
| Juma Miyagibowled · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Rohid | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Cosmas Kyewutabowled · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Rohid | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| F Nsubugacaught · Rahul Chopra · Muhammad Rohid 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rahul Chopra · b Muhammad Rohid | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| M Musinguzinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 1 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D Parashar0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 1 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Haider Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Rohid0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Saghir Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 8.25 | 0 | 1 |
| Zuhaib Zubair0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.1 | 0 | 15 | 2 | 3.60 | 0 | 1 |
1-5 (R Lutaaya, 0.4) · 2-77 (Raghav Dhawan, 11.5) · 3-80 (Robinson Obuya, 12.5) · 4-95 (Dinesh Nakrani, 15.2) · 5-96 (Shrideep Mangela, 15.4) · 6-102 (CN Kakuru, 16.2) · 7-105 (Juma Miyagi, 17.3) · 8-121 (Cosmas Kyewuta, 19.2) · 9-121 (F Nsubuga, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 25/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 33/1 |
| 6 | 9 | 42/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 52/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 60/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 65/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 68/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 75/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 78/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 82/3 |
| 14 | 8 | 90/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 95/3 |
| 16 | 7 | 102/5 |
| 17 | 2 | 104/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 110/7 |
| 19 | 11 | 121/7 |
| 20 | 5 | 126/9 |
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
