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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B · 2026 · Men
9 Jul 2026 · T20
Norway more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Estonia started on 34%; Estonia batted first.
Estonia's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Norway: 65% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walid Ghauricaught · Sahil Chauhan · Ashraful Shuvo 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Sahil Chauhan · b Ashraful Shuvo | 34 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 200.00 |
| Wahidullah Sahakcaught · Arslan Amjad · Ashraful Shuvo 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arslan Amjad · b Ashraful Shuvo | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 225.00 |
 Khizer Ahmedcaught · S Gooch · Habib Khan3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · S Gooch · b Habib Khan | 16 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 177.78 |
| Sher Sahakcaught · Arslan Amjad · Ashraful Shuvo 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arslan Amjad · b Ashraful Shuvo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Rahimibowled · Sahil Chauhan 0 fours · 5 sixes |
| 37 |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 5 |
| 264.29 |
| Faisal Razastumped · R Sekaran · Ashraful Shuvo 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · R Sekaran · b Ashraful Shuvo | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Qamar Mushtaquecaught · Arslan Amjad · Zeeshan Ali (3) 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Arslan Amjad · b Zeeshan Ali (3) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| D Abeyrathnacaught · Habib Khan · Sahil Chauhan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Habib Khan · b Sahil Chauhan | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Farmanullah Gharinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Vinay Ravinot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 1 | 1 | 0 | 400.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H Pattenden0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashraful Shuvo0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 8.25 | 2 | 0 |
| Bilal Masud0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 18.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Habib Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Zeeshan Ali (3)0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 15 | 1 | 15.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahil Chauhan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.5 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 13.20 | 0 | 0 |
1-14 (Wahidullah Sahak, 1.2) · 2-52 (Walid Ghauri, 4.0) · 3-62 (Khizer Ahmed, 5.0) · 4-62 (Sher Sahak, 5.1) · 5-83 (Faisal Raza, 7.5) · 6-98 (Qamar Mushtaque, 8.5) · 7-104 (Ibrahim Rahimi, 9.2) · 8-105 (D Abeyrathna, 9.4)
Recorded target: 106 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 18/1 |
| 3 | 19 | 37/1 |
| 4 | 15 | 52/2 |
| 5 | 10 | 62/3 |
| 6 | 8 | 70/4 |
| 7 | 10 | 80/4 |
| 8 | 3 | 83/5 |
| 9 | 15 | 98/6 |
| 10 | 11 | 109/8 |
Khizer Ahmed: Khizer22 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
