EstoniaversusNorway

9 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Norway won by 2 wickets

Estonia20.0 overs105/9 Norway9.5 overs109/8 Koge Cricket Club ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Norway more likely to win

38%Estonia62%Norway

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Norway rate stronger than Estonia (1,432 vs 1,386 on our results rating)
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Norway won 1 and Estonia won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Estonia started on 34%; Estonia batted first.

Estonia’s chance of winning (%) · Norway is the rest

Estonia's chances ranged from 0% to 35% during the match (Norway: 65% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.5: Vinay Ravi to Habib Khan, Habib Khan out. Norway up from 67% to 76%.
4.1: Vinay Ravi to S Gooch, H Aggarwal out. Norway up from 76% to 82%.
4.3: Vinay Ravi to S Gooch, S Gooch out. Norway up from 82% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Estonia105/9 Norway109/8

Innings 1

Estonia

105/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Estonia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
S Goochcaught · D Abeyrathna · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Abeyrathna · b Vinay Ravi	7	18	0	0	38.89
Habib Khanlbw · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Vinay Ravi	0	2	0	0	0.00
H Aggarwalrun out · Walid Ghauri, Sher Sahak · Vinay Ravi 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Walid Ghauri, Sher Sahak	1	7	0	0	14.29
Bilal Masudlbw · D Abeyrathna 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b D Abeyrathna	6	14	0	0	42.86
Arslan Amjadcaught · D Abeyrathna · Qamar Mushtaque 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · D Abeyrathna · b Qamar Mushtaque	15	19	2	0	78.95

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Vinay Ravi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	9	2	2.25	0
Ahmadullah Shinwari0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	0	4.00	2
Farmanullah Ghari0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	0	7.67	0
Qamar Mushtaque0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	2
D Abeyrathna0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	2	8.67	0
Wahidullah Sahak0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	4	1	2.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	1	1/1
2	2	3/1
3	5	8/1
4	6	14/1
5	1	15/3
6	3	18/3
7	2	20/3
8	3	23/3
9	12	35/3
10	5	40/4
11	2	42/6
12	4	46/6
13	11	57/6
14	13	70/6
15	13	83/6
16	10	93/6
17	3	96/7
18	6	102/8
19	1	103/8
20	2	105/9

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