Hong KongversusBangladesh

11 Sept 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 7 wickets

Hong Kong20.0 overs143/7 Bangladesh17.4 overs144/3 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

40%Hong Kong60%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,614 vs 1,544 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hong Kong started on 36%; Hong Kong batted first.

Hong Kong’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Hong Kong's chances ranged from 0% to 39% during the match (Bangladesh: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.3: Taskin Ahmed to Anshuman Rath, Anshuman Rath out. Bangladesh up from 62% to 72%.
4.4: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Babar Hayat, Babar Hayat out. Bangladesh up from 65% to 73%.
2nd inns 2.6: A Shukla to Parvez Hossain Emon, Parvez Hossain Emon out. Hong Kong up from 14% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hong Kong143/7 Bangladesh144/3

Innings 2

Bangladesh

144/317.4 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Babar Hayat · Ayush Shukla 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Babar Hayat · b Ayush Shukla	19	14	2	1	135.71
Tanzid Hasancaught · Nizakat Khan · Ateeq Iqbal 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nizakat Khan · b Ateeq Iqbal	14	18	1	0	77.78
Litton Dasbowled · Ateeq Iqbal 6 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Ateeq Iqbal	59	39	6	1	151.28
Tawhid Hridoynot out 1 fours · 0 sixes	not out	35*	36	1	0	97.22

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Ayush Shukla0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	32	1	10.67	0	1
Ateeq Iqbal0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.4	14	2	3.82	1	0
Ehsan Khan0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	28	0	9.33	5	0
Yasim Murtaza0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	39	0	9.75	0	1
Aizaz Khan0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	14	0	4.67	3	0
Kinchit Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	4	13/0
3	11	24/1
4	8	32/1
5	14	46/1
6	5	51/2
7	11	62/2
8	4	66/2
9	4	70/2
10	4	74/2
11	8	82/2
12	7	89/2
13	11	100/2
14	12	112/2
15	10	122/2
16	16	138/2
17	4	142/2
18	2	144/3

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