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Australia tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
6 Feb 2025 · Test
Galle International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Travis Headcaught · Dhananjaya de Silva · Nishan Peiris3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dhananjaya de Silva · b Nishan Peiris | 21 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 95.45 |
 Usman Khawajalbw · Nishan Peiris3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nishan Peiris | 36 | 57 | 3 | 0 | 63.16 |
 Marnus Labuschagnelbw · Prabath Jayasuriya1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
| caught · Kusal Mendis · b Prabath Jayasuriya |
| 131 |
| 254 |
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 51.57 |
 Alex Careybowled · Prabath Jayasuriya15 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 156 | 188 | 15 | 2 | 82.98 |
|---|
 Josh Inglisbowled · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Beau Websterbowled · Ramesh Mendis3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ramesh Mendis | 31 | 62 | 3 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Cooper Connollycaught · Ramesh Mendis · Nishan Peiris 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ramesh Mendis · b Nishan Peiris | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starcbowled · Prabath Jayasuriya0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 8 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 27.59 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyonnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Matthew Kuhnemannbowled · Ramesh Mendis 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ramesh Mendis | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 0 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lahiru Kumara1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 5.29 | 0 | 0 |
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 3.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Nishan Peiris4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 31.0 | 4 | 94 | 3 | 3.03 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 38.0 | 6 | 151 | 5 | 3.97 | 0 | 0 |
| Ramesh Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.4 | 0 | 81 | 2 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-32 (Travis Head, 6.4) · 2-37 (Marnus Labuschagne, 7.5) · 3-91 (Usman Khawaja, 24.5) · 4-350 (Steve Smith, 84.3) · 5-350 (Josh Inglis, 84.5) · 6-373 (Alex Carey, 93.0) · 7-384 (Cooper Connolly, 95.1) · 8-406 (Mitchell Starc, 103.5) · 9-406 (Beau Webster, 104.3) · 10-414 (Matthew Kuhnemann, 106.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 4 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 3 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 36/1 |
| 8 | 1 | 37/2 |
| 9 | 6 | 43/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 49/2 |
| 11 | 0 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 4 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 56/2 |
| 14 | 6 | 62/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 67/2 |
| 17 | 3 | 70/2 |
| 18 | 3 | 73/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 83/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 85/2 |
| 22 | 0 | 85/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 87/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 90/2 |
| 25 | 1 | 91/3 |
| 26 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 27 | 2 | 97/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 100/3 |
| 29 | 4 | 104/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 111/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 113/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 115/3 |
| 33 | 7 | 122/3 |
| 34 | 4 | 126/3 |
| 35 | 2 | 128/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 135/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 143/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 150/3 |
| 39 | 6 | 156/3 |
| 40 | 6 | 162/3 |
| 41 | 1 | 163/3 |
| 42 | 0 | 163/3 |
| 43 | 3 | 166/3 |
| 44 | 7 | 173/3 |
| 45 | 5 | 178/3 |
| 46 | 6 | 184/3 |
| 47 | 3 | 187/3 |
| 48 | 0 | 187/3 |
| 49 | 6 | 193/3 |
| 50 | 4 | 197/3 |
| 51 | 2 | 199/3 |
| 52 | 4 | 203/3 |
| 53 | 8 | 211/3 |
| 54 | 3 | 214/3 |
| 55 | 1 | 215/3 |
| 56 | 7 | 222/3 |
| 57 | 1 | 223/3 |
| 58 | 3 | 226/3 |
| 59 | 4 | 230/3 |
| 60 | 2 | 232/3 |
| 61 | 1 | 233/3 |
| 62 | 7 | 240/3 |
| 63 | 8 | 248/3 |
| 64 | 3 | 251/3 |
| 65 | 9 | 260/3 |
| 66 | 4 | 264/3 |
| 67 | 3 | 267/3 |
| 68 | 0 | 267/3 |
| 69 | 9 | 276/3 |
| 70 | 4 | 280/3 |
| 71 | 10 | 290/3 |
| 72 | 10 | 300/3 |
| 73 | 4 | 304/3 |
| 74 | 5 | 309/3 |
| 75 | 3 | 312/3 |
| 76 | 4 | 316/3 |
| 77 | 2 | 318/3 |
| 78 | 3 | 321/3 |
| 79 | 3 | 324/3 |
| 80 | 6 | 330/3 |
| 81 | 4 | 334/3 |
| 82 | 1 | 335/3 |
| 83 | 6 | 341/3 |
| 84 | 4 | 345/3 |
| 85 | 6 | 351/5 |
| 86 | 1 | 352/5 |
| 87 | 5 | 357/5 |
| 88 | 1 | 358/5 |
| 89 | 0 | 358/5 |
| 90 | 2 | 360/5 |
| 91 | 0 | 360/5 |
| 92 | 8 | 368/5 |
| 93 | 5 | 373/6 |
| 94 | 5 | 378/6 |
| 95 | 6 | 384/6 |
| 96 | 0 | 384/7 |
| 97 | 3 | 387/7 |
| 98 | 2 | 389/7 |
| 99 | 7 | 396/7 |
| 100 | 0 | 396/7 |
| 101 | 3 | 399/7 |
| 102 | 4 | 403/7 |
| 103 | 3 | 406/7 |
| 104 | 0 | 406/8 |
| 105 | 4 | 410/9 |
| 106 | 3 | 413/9 |
| 107 | 1 | 414/10 |
Beau Webster: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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